Examining the recent Hamas attack on Israel, discussing intelligence failure, Hamas' history of terror attacks, the role of Iran, and the likelihood of a ground invasion. Also explores propaganda video authenticity, threat of suicide drones, impact of trauma on Israel's narrative, Iran's aggression and Gulf-Israel alignment, complexities of the situation in Israel including armed Palestinian groups, potential risks for Israel, challenges in rescuing hostages held by Hamas.
The podcast highlights the failure of imagination within the intelligence community to anticipate the Hamas attack, revealing a flaw in Israel's heavy reliance on technology and sophisticated defenses.
Hamas's evolution into a highly capable terrorist organization is attributed to its alliance with Hezbollah and Iran, who provided resources and training, and this transformation is a result of the destabilization of the Middle East post the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
Deep dives
Failure of Imagination and Overreliance on Technology
The podcast discusses the shocking assault by Hamas on Israeli territory and explores how such an attack could have succeeded. It highlights a failure of imagination, similar to the criticism made in the 9/11 Commission Report, where the intelligence community lacked the foresight to anticipate such a threat. Israel's heavy reliance on technology and sophisticated defenses, like the Iron Dome, created a false sense of security. However, the assault overwhelmed the Iron Dome's capacity, as Hamas fired thousands of missiles, including man-portable and homemade ones. Hamas utilized a barrage of direct fire and indirect fire tactics to confuse and overwhelm the defenders.
Evolution of Hamas as a Terrorist Organization
The podcast delves into the transformation of Hamas into a highly capable and coordinated terrorist organization. It compares Hamas's assault capabilities to those of established nation-states and notes that it was able to mount simultaneous attacks from multiple dimensions (air, sea, and land). This evolution is attributed to Hamas's close alliance with Hezbollah and Iran, which provided financial resources, intelligence, weaponry, and training. The podcast suggests that Hamas's increased capabilities are a result of the destabilization of the Middle East, particularly after the U.S. invasion of Iraq, which eliminated the counterbalance to Iran in the region.
Political Context and Timing of the Attack
The podcast examines the political context surrounding the attack, noting the turmoil in Israeli politics and the normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The potential breakthrough in diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as the proposed Saudi-U.S. Defense Pact, posed a threat to the Palestinian national cause and interests aligned with Iran. The timing of the attack, coinciding with these developments, suggests a deliberate attempt to disrupt potential peace initiatives. The podcast also mentions the current internal political divisions in Israel and the impact of public protests, which further distracted the country's focus on external threats.
Potential Consequences and Escalation
The podcast explores the potential consequences and escalation of the conflict. It predicts that Israel will seek to destroy Hamas through a ground invasion, given the scale of the assault and the political pressure faced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, securing Israel before the ground incursion becomes a challenge, as Hamas and other militant groups have infiltrated the country. The podcast also highlights the risk of Hezbollah joining the conflict, along with unrest in the West Bank, which could strain Israel's military capacity. The debate regarding striking Iran, the patron of these militant groups, is also discussed, acknowledging the complexity and potential ramifications of such a decision.
Ryan sat down with Bruce Hoffman, the Shelby Cullom and Kathryn W. Davis senior fellow for counterterrorism and homeland security at the Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss Hamas' terror attack over the weekend. The conversation touched on the intelligence failure before the attack, Hamas' history of terror attacks in the region, the role of Iran, and the likelihood of a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. This conversation was recorded on Monday, Oct. 9, 2023.
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