Michael Kofman on Attrition, Doodling Range Rings, and Magical Thinking in Modern War

Attrition as a Viable Strategy for Ukraine

Attrition is considered a viable military strategy for Ukraine, despite its unpopularity among some military theorists. It contrasts with the maneuver-based offensives previously favored by the West, which have proven ineffective under current conditions. The podcast underscores that large-scale conventional warfare often devolves into a battle of attrition, where manpower, ammunition, and the ability to reconstitute forces become critical. Without the capability for sustained offensive operations, focusing on attrition allows for the maximization of enemy losses, thereby increasing Ukraine's chances of holding the line against Russian forces.

Challenges of Manpower and Resource Allocation

Manpower is a significant concern for Ukraine as it continues to face attrition in the ongoing conflict. With many soldiers lost to combat and injuries, the necessity of replenishing experienced troops becomes paramount. The podcast discusses the challenges regarding where these personnel will come from, as well as the critical shortages in fortifications and ammunition that complicate defensive strategies. The inability to establish robust defensive positions places the military at a disadvantage, increasing vulnerability to Russian offensives.

Leadership Changes and Their Implications

The change in leadership in the Ukrainian military, particularly the transition from Zaluzhny to Siersky, is seen as a significant event that may affect operational outcomes. This shift is not just about replacing individuals but involves an entire restructuring of military leadership and strategy. Siersky's hands-on approach and focus on immediate tactical situations represent a shift in how frontline operations may be conducted. The podcast indicates that the impending changes in command structure and tactics may provide necessary adjustments to stabilize the frontline amid losses.

The Limitations of Air Superiority and Long-Range Strikes

Air superiority and long-range precision strikes have often been overestimated in their effectiveness throughout the conflict. The podcast emphasizes that air power alone cannot resolve ground-level challenges, and rapid adaptations by opponents counteract initial advantages. The limitations of ammunition availability affect both ground and air forces, indicating that expectations surrounding air superiority should be reassessed. Strategies focused on deep battle and long-range fires need to be balanced with the realities of close combat effectiveness.

Understanding the BTG Concept and Its Failures

The podcast delves into the complexities of the Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) concept within the Russian military, highlighting that misconceptions about its origin and effectiveness are widespread. It discusses how BTGs were structured around a short-notice, limited engagement model, which did not align with the prolonged conflict in Ukraine. The evolving tactics and operational challenges faced by the BTGs demonstrate their brittleness under attrition-based warfare conditions. Understanding the BTG's limitations is essential for analyzing the current state of military operations and rethinking future engagements.

Revolution in Military Affairs

Michael Kofman on Attrition, Doodling Range Rings, and Magical Thinking in Modern War

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Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Attrition as a Viable Strategy for Ukraine

Challenges of Manpower and Resource Allocation

Leadership Changes and Their Implications

The Limitations of Air Superiority and Long-Range Strikes

Understanding the BTG Concept and Its Failures

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