Russia is conducting systemic deportations and forced adoptions of Ukrainian children to eradicate national identity and consolidate control over occupied territories.
Russian military has shown capacity for learning and adapting in the conflict in Ukraine.
Deportations and forced repopulation efforts by Russia present challenges for reintegration and hinder restoration of Ukrainian territories.
Deep dives
Systemic deportation and forced adoption of Ukrainian children by Russia
Russia has been conducting systemic deportations and forced adoptions of Ukrainian children as a means to eradicate Ukrainian national identity and consolidate control over occupied territories. These deportations began in 2020 and continue to occur, with Russian authorities justifying the actions as humanitarian programs. The strategic implications include depopulating Ukrainian territory and replacing the population with Russian citizens, thereby exerting control and creating legitimacy for the occupation. The exact number of children affected is difficult to determine due to conflicting reports, but the practice is ongoing. While there are anecdotal examples of resistance, the situation remains challenging. The international community's focus on the issue has been limited, potentially due to discomfort and the successful Russian information campaign presenting the deportations as a humanitarian endeavor.
Evolution of Russian military doctrine in Ukraine
Russian military doctrine has roots in the Soviet system and emphasizes a scientific and formulaic approach to strategy. During the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine, Russian forces did not adhere to their traditional doctrine, resulting in failures and collapses of the front lines. However, there has been evidence of adapting and learning from past failures, which is reflected in more recent deployments. Currently, Russian forces are implementing a more doctrinally sound defensive strategy in response to the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the South. This includes deploying formations from military districts in a coordinated manner, defending along defensive lines, and employing flexible defensive tactics. While challenges remain, the Russian military has shown capacity for learning and adapting.
Impact on Ukraine's population and prospects for reintegration
The deportations and forced repopulation efforts conducted by Russia in Ukrainian territories present challenges for reintegration. By removing Ukrainian citizens and replacing them with Russians, Russia aims to consolidate control and create a veneer of legitimacy. The systemic eradication of Ukrainian national identity through various measures such as language changes, curricula adjustments, and passportization further complicates reintegration. While the ultimate repairability of the situation remains uncertain, resistance efforts by individuals within the occupied areas signify a desire to challenge and complicate occupation strategies. Restoring Ukraine's own territories will require navigating complex obstacles resulting from Russia's deliberate efforts to hinder reintegration.
Violence and human rights abuses in occupied territories
Human rights abuses, violence, and coercion are part of Russia's strategy in occupied territories. These abuses are systemic and serve to psychologically impact Ukrainian civilians, discourage partisan activities, and force compliance with the occupation administration. While details about specific incidents are limited due to restricted sourcing from Russian-controlled areas, evidence points to the use of violence as a method of control and intimidation. These actions violate the Geneva Convention and are likely part of Russia's wider campaign to eradicate Ukrainian national identity and exert control over occupied areas.
The moral imperative for Western support of Ukraine
Amid questions about continued Western support for Ukraine, the moral imperative lies in the humanitarian impact of the conflict. The suffering of hundreds of thousands of deported Ukrainian children, the use of torture and violence, and the erosion of Ukrainian national identity all underscore the need to support Ukraine. The West should recognize that war encompasses more than territorial gains and losses. It is about people and the human cost of war. Supporting Ukraine's fight against the invasion is essential to mitigate the systematic eradication of Ukrainian national identity and protect the well-being of its people.
Today, we bring you updates from the battlefront, discuss the use of decoys by Ukrainian forces & we interview Karolina Hird from the Institute for the Study of War.
Contributors:
David Knowles (Host). @djknowles22 on Twitter.
Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on Twitter.
Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on Twitter.
Joe Barnes (Brussels Correspondent). @Barnes_Joe on Twitter.
With thanks to Karolina Hird, Russia Deputy Team Lead and Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. @KarolinaAHird on Twitter.
Read 'We know West can give us more weapons, says Ukraine’s spy chief', by Joe Barnes:
