The Markets The Fed Cut Playbook
8 snips
Aug 15, 2025 
Josh Schiffrin, the Chief Strategy Officer at Goldman Sachs, joins Mike Washington to dissect the potential upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts. They explore the mixed signals from inflation data and job growth, raising questions about economic stability. Schiffrin highlights opportunities in bond, currency, and equity markets, addressing how rate cuts could impact the U.S. dollar and equity resilience, especially with advancements in AI. The discussion also touches on current trading strategies and cautious outlooks for equity valuations as the market evolves.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Mixed Inflation But Stable Narrative
- Inflation data this week was mixed with services rising and goods soft, but the broad inflation story is unchanged.
- Josh Schiffrin expects this pattern not to persist and views the overall inflation narrative as stable.
Labor Revisions Shift Fed Expectations
- The August payroll revisions made three-month job growth look considerably weaker than previously thought.
- Schiffrin views the Fed as highly responsive to labor market weakness and likely to ease in September.
Position For A September 25bp Cut
- Expect a 25 basis point Fed cut in September with high probability and low odds of a 50 basis point move.
- Monitor labor market data closely thereafter because it will dictate the pace of subsequent cuts.