Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom #61: Peter Berezin On Finding The Courage To Be A Contrarian
35 snips
Jul 16, 2025 Peter Berezin, a notable strategist from BCA Research with experience at Goldman Sachs and the IMF, shares his contrarian views on Wall Street. He discusses his bearish price targets for the S&P 500 and why deep thinking is crucial for investors. Berezin highlights the risks of AI investments, arguing that enhanced productivity might benefit commodities more than tech firms. He also emphasizes the importance of being adaptable in a challenging market and encourages investors to take time away from screens for better insights.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Macroquant Model Predicts Market Decline
- Peter Berezin's macroquant model uses historical economic, inflation, and sentiment data to forecast markets.
- The model is bearish because current data resembles past periods preceding market declines.
The Kinked Beveridge Curve Explained
- The Beveridge curve shows a kink at about 4.5% job openings where unemployment rises sharply below that.
- Job openings nearing this level indicate rising unemployment risk, making recession more likely now than in 2022.
AI's Profit Margins May Contract
- AI lacks the network effects and scale economies that drove tech profits in past innovations.
- AI's capital intensity resembles the airline industry, implying pressure on profit margins rather than expansion.
