The Intelligence from The Economist Degrees of risk: COP27 and the 1.5C myth
Nov 7, 2022
Kathleen Bragg, Environment editor at The Economist, and Hamza Jelani, Foreign affairs writer, delve into pressing global issues. They discuss the waning feasibility of limiting global warming to 1.5C and the essential shift in focus from prevention to adaptation. The conversation also highlights the global decline of the rule of law, particularly in unstable regions, while contrasting with signs of improvement in Eastern Europe. Additionally, they tackle the quirky world of sports rivalries where success breeds disdain among fans, revealing our complex relationship with winning teams.
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1.5°C Target Unrealistic
- The 1.5°C warming target, a key goal of the Paris Agreement, is now essentially unattainable.
- Continued emissions growth and insufficient action make achieving this goal unrealistic.
Acknowledging Failure
- Publicly acknowledging the failure of the 1.5°C target is politically difficult, as it can be demotivating.
- Developing nations see exceeding 1.5°C as a serious threat to their existence.
Consequences of Overshooting
- Exceeding 1.5°C will worsen climate impacts, including sea-level rise, reduced agricultural productivity, and more extreme weather events.
- A 2°C world will expose hundreds of millions more people to extreme heat and displace millions due to rising sea levels.