This podcast challenges the conventional belief about OPEC's power and explores the limitations they face in controlling oil production. It addresses the misconceptions about OPEC's role in the gas lines of the 70s and discusses the political importance of blaming OPEC for gasoline price fluctuations.
OPEC's control over oil prices is exaggerated and they face constraints in adjusting production and enforcing quotas among members.
OPEC and individual nations within it do not have the ability to easily manipulate oil production levels due to various constraints, and their predictions about the impact of their production decisions are uncertain.
Deep dives
OPEC's exaggerated power over oil prices
The perception of OPEC's control over oil prices is likely exaggerated, according to Peter David Kep and Peter Vandor's paper. They found that OPEC faces constraints in adjusting oil production and enforcing quotas among its members. Additionally, OPEC nations, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, do not closely adhere to their quotas. The authors highlight that OPEC operates more like a cartel where members often cheat and exploit high prices. The paper challenges the notion that OPEC wields immense power over oil prices.
Constraints on OPEC's ability to control oil supply
OPEC and individual nations within it, like Saudi Arabia, do not have the ability to easily manipulate oil production levels due to various constraints, including geology and engineering limitations. Turning oil production on and off is not a simple process, and any adjustments have significant trade-offs. OPEC's predictions about the impact of their production decisions on future oil prices are also uncertain due to the complex and lengthy supply chains of the oil industry. The paper emphasizes that the public's perception of OPEC's power often overlooks the fixed nature of oil supply and the role that price fluctuations play in maintaining supply at the pump.
Contrary to conventional beliefs about how the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries operates, there are many reasons to believe OPEC has fewer degrees of freedom than most people believe. That misperception can serve the needs of politicians searching for a bogeyman. Peter Van Doren and David Kemp explain why in a new paper.