Topics discussed include earnings, treasury bonds, investor behavior, bond yields, stock market impact, prolonged drawdowns, ETF flows, buying stocks as interest rates rise, market rally, and experiences on social media platforms and writing for Barons.
Read more
AI Summary
Highlights
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
Weight loss drugs like ozempic pose a challenge to consumer staple companies such as Pepsi, as they may lead to reduced consumption of fast food and other products.
Pepsi's stock price decline can be attributed to market concerns about the impact of weight loss drugs on consumer appetite for its products.
Despite the decline in Pepsi's stock, it still outperforms the broader consumer staples sector, which has seen a larger decrease.
Deep dives
Pepsi shares plummet as weight loss drug concerns grow
Pepsi shares have experienced a significant decline recently, with the stock falling from its May high of $196 to its current level of $159. This decline can be partly attributed to concerns about the impact of weight loss drugs, such as ozempic, on consumer behavior. As more people turn to these drugs, there is speculation that they may reduce the consumption of fast food and other products typically associated with consumer staple companies like Pepsi. However, it is important to note that while Pepsi's stock has declined, it is still performing better than the broader consumer staples sector, which has seen a larger decrease.
Consumer staple companies face challenges from weight loss drugs
Consumer staple companies, including Pepsi, are facing challenges as weight loss drugs like ozempic gain popularity. There is apprehension that these drugs may lead to reduced consumption of fast food and other products offered by companies like Pepsi. This concern has contributed to a decline in Pepsi's stock price. However, it should be noted that the overall performance of consumer staples has been impacted this year, and Pepsi's decline is in line with the sector's performance.
Market reacts to concerns over weight loss drugs impacting Pepsi
The market has reacted to concerns about the impact of weight loss drugs on Pepsi by driving down the stock price. Pepsi has experienced a decline, although it has outperformed the broader consumer staples sector. The decline can be attributed to worries that the increased use of drugs like ozempic may reduce consumer appetite for fast food and other products offered by Pepsi. However, it is important to note that the overall decline in consumer staples has also contributed to the decrease in Pepsi's stock price.
Pepsi's Earnings Outlook and Potential Impact of Semaglutide Weight Loss Drugs
Pepsi's earnings outlook for Q3 shows increased sales growth and margin expansion. Analysts expect sales growth of around 6% to $23.4 billion and an operating margin of 16.4%. While some concerns exist about volume growth, Pepsi's strong cash flow, ability to make acquisitions, and historical track record for navigating market changes suggest a defensive investment opportunity. Additionally, the potential impact of semaglutide weight loss drugs on Pepsi's snack and beverage sales is relatively small compared to the overall size of the company and its consumer base. Pepsi's stock is trading at a slim premium to the market, making it an attractive option for investors seeking a defensive stock with sustained high single-digit EPS growth.
Valuation and Historical Premium of Pepsi's Stock
Pepsi's stock is currently trading at about 20 times price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, which is a relatively slim premium compared to historical levels. While the overall market is trading at around 18 times PE ratio, Pepsi's enduring franchise, strong cash flow generation, and defensive nature historically justify a higher valuation. With the potential for 3-5% top-line growth, a focus on healthier products, and strategic acquisitions, Pepsi's long-term prospects remain promising. Additionally, the current valuation provides an opportunity for investors to purchase a dominant company at a reasonable price, positioning them for double-digit total returns.
Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for an all-new episode of What Are Your Thoughts and see what they have to say about the biggest topics in investing and finance! Then, stay tuned for Josh's conversation with Jacob Sonenshine of Barron's.
Thanks to Public for sponsoring this episode! Go to https://public.com/compound to lock in a historic 5.5% yield on your cash.
Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information.
Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: