Yevgeny Prigozhin's recent death means Putin is losing powerful allies. Mark Galeotti discusses Putin's shrinking circle and the flaws in his leadership. They explore the stability of the Russian economy and public sentiment. Discussing Putin's mentality and potential regrets regarding the invasion of Ukraine.
The recent death of Yevgeny Prigozhin reveals a loss of powerful allies and military support for Putin, potentially impacting his control over Russia's military agenda.
Ukrainian missile strikes and Western intelligence could demoralize Russian ground forces, affecting morale and coordination in the ongoing war.
Deep dives
The impact of the Progosion mutiny on Putin's leadership
The Progosion mutiny revealed underlying processes and pressures that are shaping and distorting Putin's regime. It showed a failure of Putin's leadership, as he allowed dangerous rivalries to escalate and did not intervene to resolve them. The security forces also did not actively oppose the mutiny, indicating a lack of confidence in Putin's leadership. Putin's denouncement and subsequent deal with Progosion, followed by his betrayal and killing, highlighted a break in his pattern of loyalty, which could signal a loss of control.
Demoralization among Russian commanders due to Ukrainian strikes
Precise Ukrainian missile strikes targeting Russian officials and commanders, coupled with the provision of intelligence by Western allies, could lead to demoralization among the Russian ground forces. These strikes may make it harder for senior commanders to gather, as they fear being targeted during meetings. The impact on morale and coordination within the Russian military forces could play a significant role in shaping the course of the war.
The potential for negotiations and Crimea's role
Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are currently unlikely, as both sides believe time is on their side. The longer the conflict continues, the better it is perceived to be for each side. However, there may come a point where negotiations become a possibility, with Crimea potentially being a key issue on the table. Some within Kiev and the West recognize that complete restoration of every inch of Ukrainian soil may not be feasible, and that a demilitarized Crimea or internationally mediated referendum may be a more realistic solution.
Potential implications of conflict around Taiwan
If conflict were to arise around Taiwan, it could pose a serious security dilemma for Western allies who are also assisting Ukraine. The resources and attention required for such a conflict could lead to a strain on Western support for Ukraine. This could result in a shifting of priorities and a call for European allies to provide more assistance to Ukraine. The simultaneous occurrence of two large-scale conflicts could stretch resources and production capacities globally, creating further challenges in managing both conflicts effectively.
Mark Galeotti is one of the world’s leading experts on modern Russia and is the author of books such as Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine and The Weaponisation of Everything: A Field Guide to the New Way of War. In conversation with Intelligence Squared's Conor Boyle, he explains how the recent death of the Wagner mercenary Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin means that Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing powerful allies and those willing to carry out Russia's military agenda. How long can Putin cling onto power?
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