The Briefing How jeans, jorts & mullets could spell the next recession
Apr 20, 2025
Amy Campbell, Features Editor of Esquire Australia, dives into the intriguing link between fashion choices and economic trends. She explains how practical styles like jorts and the rise of 'quiet luxury' could signal an impending recession. The conversation touches on concepts like the hemline index and the lipstick effect, demonstrating how clothing spending reflects broader economic sentiments. Campbell also discusses the psychological impact of small purchases and how style shifts reveal consumer behavior during downturns.
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Fashion Reflects Economic Health
- People tend to choose more conservative, subtle, and affordable fashion during economic downturns.
- This shift away from flashy logos to quiet luxury signals a broader economic slump.
Luxury Spending Declines Sharply
- Luxury spending in 2024 is dramatically down compared to years like 2023 and pre-2008.
- Major luxury brands report slowing revenue growth, showing consumers' pullback on big-ticket items.
Hemline Index and Fashion Cycles
- Longer hemlines return during economic downturns, supporting the hemline index theory.
- Fashion trends also cycle normally, so shorter skirts in boom years and longer ones in downturns is cyclical, not absolute.