President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 14 December 2023
Dec 14, 2023
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President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions and discusses factors influencing interest rate decisions, plans to normalize the balance sheet, and expectations for inflation reaching the target of 2% in 2025. The episode also covers the Euro-area economy, labor market impact, changes in financial and monetary conditions, and concerns about financial stability.
The ECB has decided to keep the key interest rates unchanged and expects inflation to gradually decline before reaching the target of 2% in 2025.
Risks to economic growth include monetary policy effects, weak global trade, and geopolitical tensions, while financial stability remains fragile due to tightening financing conditions and weak growth.
The governing council of the ECB has decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Inflation is expected to decline gradually over the course of next year before approaching the 2% target in 2025. Average headline inflation is projected to be 5.4% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. Underlying inflation has eased, but domestic price pressures remain elevated. Inflation excluding energy and food is projected to average 5% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025, and 2.1% in 2026.
Economic growth, monetary policy stance, and balance sheet normalization
Eurosystem staff expect economic growth to remain subdued in the near term, but anticipate a recovery as real income rises due to falling inflation, growing wages, and improving foreign demand. Growth is projected to pick up from 0.6% in 2023 to 0.8% in 2024, and further increase to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026. The ECB aims to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target by maintaining sufficiently long-lasting restrictive interest rates. The Eurosystem's balance sheet normalization will continue with reinvestment reductions and a discontinuation of reinvestment under the pandemic emergency purchase program (PEP) at the end of 2024.
Risks to economic growth and inflation, financial and monetary conditions
Risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside due to potential effects of monetary policy, weak global trade, and geopolitical tensions. Upside risks to inflation include geopolitical tensions and extreme weather events, while downside risks relate to tighter monetary policy and a worsening economic environment globally. Market interest rates have fallen since the last meeting, lending rates have risen, credit dynamics have weakened, and broad money (M3) has continued to contract. Financial stability remains fragile due to tightening financing conditions, weak growth, and geopolitical tensions, with macroprudential policy serving as the first line of defense against financial vulnerabilities.
Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy, determining what’s needed to return inflation to our 2% goal in a timely manner.
Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers:
- how the economy is performing
- how we expect prices to develop
- the risks to the economic outlook
- the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions
Published and recorded during our press conference on 14 December 2023.
Additional material
Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 14 December 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/visual-mps/2023/html/mopo_statement_explained_december.en.html
Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 14 December 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2023/html/ecb.is231214~df8627de60.en.html
Monetary policy decisions, 14 December 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp231214~9846e62f62.en.html
Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 14 December 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/shared/pdf/ecb.ds231214~cbcff0882a.en.pdf
Macroeconomic projections, 14 December 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/index.en.html
European Central Bank
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
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