The reluctant voters who could decide the election
Nov 4, 2024
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Scott Clement, polling director for The Washington Post, shares expert insights into undecided voters, or 'The Deciders,' crucial for the upcoming election. He discusses how these voters in key swing states like Wisconsin and Georgia reflect broader voter dissatisfaction. Clement highlights the complexities behind their choices, shaped by issues such as immigration, the economy, and recent global events. The conversation sheds light on how these undecided voters could ultimately sway the election results.
Undecided voters, dubbed 'The Deciders,' represent a significant and influential group in battleground states, with 61% lacking firm commitments ahead of the election.
Economic perceptions, particularly regarding inflation and financial stability, play a crucial role in shaping the opinions of these undecided voters as they weigh their choices.
Deep dives
The Role of Deciders in Swing States
Deciders, or voters who are still undecided on their candidate choice, play a critical role in the election, especially in swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia. A significant portion of voters can be categorized as deciders, with approximately 61 percent in these battleground states lacking firm commitments to either candidate by the fall of 2024. This group includes individuals who may not have participated in previous elections, making their eventual turnout pivotal. As the election approached, the analysis revealed that many within this demographic were still wrestling with their choices, highlighting the fluidity of voter opinions amidst a politically charged atmosphere.
Key Influences on Voter Decision-Making
Various factors have emerged as influential in swaying the deciders' opinions leading up to the election, including major events and debates. The change in the Democratic nominee from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris was particularly noted, as it streamlined support for Harris among previously undecided voters. Additionally, significant moments during political debates, where Harris's performance was perceived as stronger than Trump's, impacted voter sentiment positively. Collectively, these influences underline the dynamic and evolving nature of voter perceptions as they engage with relevant political developments.
Prevalence of Economic Concerns Among Voters
Economic issues, particularly inflation and financial stability, feature prominently in the minds of deciders as they contemplate their vote. Despite objective improvements in the economy, many voters expressed a pessimistic view, revealing a disconnect between perception and reality. Those leaning towards Harris frequently highlighted the economic climate as a top priority for their decision-making, while also dismissing the prevailing narrative that the economy was in good shape. This sense of economic unease, regardless of actual conditions, underscores the complexity inherent in voter behavior, especially in light of competing priorities like immigration and reproductive rights.
It’s the day before the presidential election, and a lot of people have already voted – or at least made up their minds.
But there are still undecided voters in key swing states who may or may not turn out. Last week, “Post Reports” producers interviewed some of these voters – whom we’re calling “The Deciders” – a key voting bloc that The Washington Post has been following all year. We’re bringing you their thoughts today.
Host Martine Powers also speaks with Scott Clement, polling director for The Post, about what these voters mean for former president Donald Trump’s or Vice President Kamala Harris’s path to victory.
Starting in the spring, The Post reached out to a contact list of voters who were not committed to either candidate, or who had a history of voting infrequently, and therefore might sit out the 2024 presidential election. All live in one of the seven battleground states largely expected to determine the election: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada. Clement describes how The Post has surveyed this group over time to gain insight into what motivates them and which way they are swinging this November.
Correction: a previous version of this podcast incorrectly said voter Richard Schall is from Michigan. The audio has been updated.
Today’s show was produced by Laura Benshoff with help from Peter Bresnan. It was edited by Maggie Penman and mixed by Sam Bair. Thanks also to Emily Guskin.