Guests Elizabeth Ames and Sophia Gaston discuss the British government's leadership chaos and the ongoing Brexit fallout. They explore the decline of UK politics, the negative impacts of Brexit on the country's economy, and the challenges of decoupling from the EU. They also compare Rishi Sunak to Boris Johnson and discuss the improving UK-EU relations.
Rishi Sunak's focus on stability and avoiding conflicts aims to create space for new conversations and thinking in the UK's post-Brexit relationship with the EU.
The Labour Party faces a challenge in balancing its anti-Brexit stance with advocating for a new economic relationship with the EU, which may only be resolved after the next election when the winner will have a stronger mandate to implement policy changes.
Deep dives
Rishi Sunak's leadership and the challenges ahead
Rishi Sunak, the new Prime Minister of the UK, brings a different approach compared to his predecessor Boris Johnson. While Johnson is known for his charisma, Sunak is seen as a detail-oriented policy person with a background in finance. He is focused on domestic economic issues and has been working on developing a clear logic for the UK's post-Brexit relationship with the EU. Sunak aims to prioritize stability and avoid conflicts, both domestically and with the EU, in order to create space for new conversations and thinking. However, it remains to be seen if he can navigate the challenges ahead and effectively deliver on the promises made during the Brexit campaign.
The trap for the Labour Party
The Labour Party in the UK faces a challenge in navigating the post-Brexit landscape. While the party is currently leading in the polls and expected to win the next election, there is a risk of becoming trapped in a small target strategy. The party must balance its anti-Brexit stance with advocating for a new economic relationship with the EU. However, openly discussing closer trading ties with the EU may be seen as going against the Brexit decision and could hurt their chances in the election. This dilemma may only be resolved after the next election when the winner will have a stronger mandate to implement policy changes.
The need for deliberate political links between the UK and Australia
The institutional links between the UK and Australia remain strong, particularly in foreign and defense ministries. However, with different political parties in power in both countries, deliberate efforts are required to maintain and strengthen the political relationship. Both countries need to rethink and rebuild their political links, particularly as Australia's Labor Party pursues a small target strategy to allow the Conservative Party time to potentially self-destruct. The upcoming ministerial meetings between the two countries provide an opportunity to nurture and foster these links, promoting common values and interests on the international stage.
Unpredictability and the unlikely possibility of an early election
Given the dynamic and unpredictable nature of global events impacting domestic politics, an early election in the UK is highly unlikely. The Conservative Party aims to stabilize their standing in the polls and continue pursuing their longer-term strategy. The Labour Party's small target strategy requires sustained discipline, making it challenging to wear down the opposition and create room for dysfunction. Both parties are aware that unforeseen events in the next 18 months could favor or challenge their positions. Overall, a 2024 election seems more probable, allowing time for political landscape shifts and the emergence of new challenges.
On this episode of Democracy Sausage, regular UK-based guests Elizabeth Ames and Sophia Gaston join Mark Kenny to discuss the British government’s leadership chaos and the ongoing Brexit fallout.
Is the elevation of Rishi Sunak to the prime ministership the end of the Conservative Party’s leadership turmoil? What impact might this instability have at the next national election? And what will a new prime minister mean for the United Kingdom’s relationships with Europe and beyond? On this episode of Democracy Sausage, Chair of the Menzies Australia Institute at King’s College London Elizabeth Ames and Head of Foreign Policy and UK Resilience at Policy Exchange Sophia Gaston join Professor Mark Kenny to discuss the recent upheaval in British politics.
Sophia Gaston is Head of Foreign Policy and UK Resilience at Policy Exchange, one of the United Kingdom's leading think tanks. She is also a Research Fellow at the Institute for Global Affairs at the London School of Economics and Political Science and an Academic Fellow at the European Policy Centre in Brussels.
Elizabeth Ames is the Chief Operating Officer of Atalanta, a mission-driven firm with a focus on advancing women’s leadership worldwide. She is the Chair of the Menzies Australia Institute at King’s College London and a Director of the Britain-Australia Society.
Mark Kenny is a Professor at ANU Australian Studies Institute. He came to the university after a high-profile journalistic career including six years as chief political correspondent and national affairs editor for The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, and The Canberra Times.