The Morning Edition Have we just seen a tipping point in the US-China fight for supremacy?
Oct 22, 2025
Peter Hartcher, a senior political commentator and journalist specializing in geopolitics, dives into the shifting dynamics of US-China relations. He discusses the long-predicted but elusive moment of China's supremacy and highlights recent political turmoil within China that hampers this ambition. Hartcher also examines the implications of Trump's failed tariff threats, Xi Jinping's internal power struggles, and Australia's newfound role through a critical minerals deal with the US, potentially elevating its status from middle power.
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China Big But Not Yet Bigger
- China has grown enormously but remains about two-thirds the size of the US economy by market prices.
- The US retains larger nuclear forces and extensive wartime experience that still matter to global power.
China's Rare Earth Leverage
- China has built near-monopoly control over processed rare earths, about 92% globally.
- The US lagged in developing its own supply chain and policy shifts left it exposed.
A Clash That Revealed Weakness
- China used export controls on rare earths that target military applications to exert coercion.
- Trump's threatened 100% tariffs collapsed within days, revealing a US inability to match that economic coercion.