Bloomberg Surveillance Ukraine Developments and Previewing Jackson Hole
7 snips
Aug 18, 2025 
Blake Gwinn, Head of US Rates Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, dives into the intricacies of monetary policy and rate cut expectations. He discusses the fluctuating investor sentiments around the Federal Reserve's decisions leading up to Jackson Hole, emphasizing the mixed signals from inflation and consumer strength. The conversation also touches on how geopolitical dynamics impact market reactions, especially in the context of the conflict in Ukraine and its implications for economic policies.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Geopolitics Usually Hit Markets Briefly
- Geopolitical events usually cause fleeting market effects unless they disrupt commerce materially.
- Michael Darda expects limited long-lasting market impact from recent events without major trade disruptions.
Data Argues For Gradual Fed Easing
- Markets price a 25bp September cut but Darda urges a gradual approach given steady nominal growth.
- He argues 5% nominal growth and stable unemployment don't justify emergency rate cuts now.
Growth And Asset Prices Signal Policy Stance
- Darda says if rates were dramatically above neutral we'd see a clear economic crash and asset implosion.
- He uses recent strong nominal growth and rising asset prices to argue Fed is not hugely above neutral.
