Bloomberg Surveillance Expectations for a Fed Rate Cut
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Sep 17, 2025 Randy Schwimmer, Vice Chair and Chief Investment Strategist at Churchill Asset Management, dives into the booming inflows into private credit, explaining how large asset managers are adapting to this shift. He discusses the pressure on traditional firms to embrace private markets and alternative investments, including recent takeover attempts that haven't yielded results. The conversation explores the implications for portfolio quality and liquidity, painting a vivid picture of the evolving financial landscape.
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Dot Plot Drives Market Expectations
- The Fed's dot plot is not meant as guidance but markets treat it that way.
- Changes to the dot plot can move expectations sharply and matter for policy signaling.
U.S. Still Central To Global Macro
- U.S. macro dominates global markets because everyone watches the Fed.
- The U.S. labor market shows strain, so domestic developments command focus now.
Position For A Modest Cut Today
- Prepare for a 25bps cut as the baseline and expect at least one dissent.
- Watch the dot plot and press conference for signals on the total cuts priced for 2025.