Is Small Cap Dead? Why You Shouldn't Abandon Small Cap Stocks
Apr 24, 2024
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Explore the underperformance of global small-cap stocks compared to large-cap stocks, reasons behind it, and the potential for double-digit returns. Discuss the importance of quality when investing in small caps and the benefits of considering small caps in a diversified portfolio.
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Quick takeaways
Global small caps have outperformed large caps over the past two decades, with potential double-digit returns ahead.
US small cap stocks have underperformed due to declining quality and coverage, offering opportunities for accurate stock picking.
Deep dives
The Historical Performance of Small Cap Stocks Globally
Over the past 20 years, global small cap stocks have outperformed global stocks, with small cap stocks in world XUS outperforming large cap by about 0.7% annualized. Additionally, emerging markets small cap stocks have shown significant outperformance compared to overall emerging markets, with US small cap stocks returning 8.8% annualized over the past two decades.
Differences in Quality and Coverage Impacting Small Cap Stocks
In the US, small cap stocks have underperformed large cap ones due to factors like declining quality and coverage. Goldman Sachs highlighted that the median US small cap stock has only five analysts covering it, leading to potential mispricing opportunities. Greg Torto emphasized that accurate stock picking can lead to outperformance in small cap stocks, highlighting the importance of understanding consensus and potential upside surprises.
Future Outlook and Earnings Growth for Small Cap Stocks
Despite recent underperformance, there are expectations for faster earnings growth in the future for small cap stocks compared to large cap stocks. Analysts project higher forward earnings per share growth for both global and US small cap stocks over the next year. This outlook suggests potential opportunities for small cap stocks, especially as quality and valuation play crucial roles in their performance.