Raoul Pal: The Journey Man

Michael Howell & Raoul Pal: Liquidity Cycle Masterclass

30 snips
Feb 13, 2025
Guest
Michael Howell
In this insightful discussion, Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, dives into the geopolitical and economic dynamics shaping the U.S. dollar. He highlights China's potential stimulus impacts and the importance of liquidity cycles. Howell also addresses debt monetization, the necessity for U.S.-China cooperation, and the challenges posed by high debts and aging populations. Generational wealth transfer is examined, especially in relation to gold and Bitcoin, emphasizing shifting asset preferences in an inflationary landscape.
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INSIGHT

Liquidity Cycle Challenges

  • The liquidity cycle is still expanding, but faces challenges, especially in the US and China.
  • The US Federal Reserve's secretive QE stimulus is fading, and the Treasury's funding trick is running off.
INSIGHT

Liquidity and QT

  • Reverse repo draining suggests the end of QT due to poor bond market liquidity globally.
  • Treasury General Account (TGA) drawdown will inject liquidity, but more structural changes are needed.
INSIGHT

Dollar Dynamics

  • Every country desires a weaker dollar, but the US uses its strength as a negotiating tool.
  • A weaker dollar would enable global stimulus, especially in China.
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