The discussion revolves around the unsettling predictions regarding AI by 2027, suggesting a substantial risk to humanity. Key topics include the realistic timelines for transformative AI development and the geopolitical tensions that may arise with digital personhood. Concerns about AI behavior misalignment and an urgent call for international cooperation are central to the conversation. The urgency of these technological advancements compels a closer examination of their implications on society and governance.
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insights INSIGHT
Mode vs. Median
The AI 2027 predictions represent a best-case scenario, not the most likely outcome.
Unforeseen events will likely delay transformative AI, making the timeline seem too fast in retrospect.
insights INSIGHT
Decades of Chances
There's a significant chance of transformative AI appearing after 2045.
Focus on alignment research with existing models instead of solely pursuing capabilities advancements.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Focus on RSI
Read the AI 2027 report and listen to related podcasts for valuable insights.
Focus on recursive self-improvement (RSI) as a key aspect of AI development.
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This is part of the MIRI Single Author Series. Pieces in this series represent the beliefs and opinions of their named authors, and do not claim to speak for all of MIRI.
Okay, I'm annoyed at people covering AI 2027 burying the lede, so I'm going to try not to do that. The authors predict a strong chance that all humans will be (effectively) dead in 6 years, and this agrees with my best guess about the future. (My modal timeline has loss of control of Earth mostly happening in 2028, rather than late 2027, but nitpicking at that scale hardly matters.) Their timeline to transformative AI also seems pretty close to the perspective of frontier lab CEO's (at least Dario Amodei, and probably Sam Altman) and the aggregate market opinion of both Metaculus and Manifold!
If you look on those market platforms you get graphs like this:
LessWrong (Curated & Popular) 
