Ben Rogoff (Polar Capital) - The Importance Of Not Missing Out
Dec 20, 2022
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Ben Rogoff, Co-head of Polar Capital's Global Technology team, talks about his early career, navigating the tech bubble, investment themes, importance of not missing out on big winners, benefits of diversification, false sell signals, and similarities and differences with the tech bubble.
The importance of understanding the market environment and learning from past cycles.
The transformative power of technology in enabling new industries and disrupting existing ones.
The need for liquidity and careful analysis in tech investing, considering profitability and market position.
Deep dives
Ben Rogoff's career journey and entry into the investment industry
In this podcast episode, Ben Rogoff discusses his entry into the investment industry and his journey from the sell side to the buy side. He talks about how his early experiences shaped his decision to focus on the buy side, particularly in the tech sector. Rogoff also highlights the importance of mentors and the impact they had on his career development.
Navigating the tech industry through market cycles
Rogoff shares his insights on navigating the tech industry through different market cycles. He draws on his experience during the tech bubble of the late 90s and early 2000s, discussing the similarities and differences with the current market environment. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the environment, being adaptable, and learning from past market cycles.
The role of technology in transforming industries
Rogoff discusses how technology, particularly in the form of general purpose technologies like AI and cloud computing, continues to transform various industries. He highlights the potential for technology to enable new industries and disrupt existing ones. Rogoff also mentions the importance of digital transformation and the impact of technology on business models and market dynamics.
Investment strategies for tech companies
Rogoff shares his investment strategies for tech companies, emphasizing the need for liquidity and distinguishing between early-stage and late-stage tech investing. He discusses the importance of analyzing a company's profitability, market position, and ability to innovate. Rogoff also highlights the challenge of valuing tech companies and the importance of understanding the industry dynamics and competitive landscape.
Assessing the current market environment and its impact on tech investing
Rogoff reflects on the current market environment and the potential impact on tech investing. He discusses the challenges posed by inflation, rising interest rates, and changing investor sentiment. Rogoff also shares his views on the mega-cap tech companies and their role in the market, considering factors such as valuations, regulatory risks, and the evolving competitive landscape.
Ben Rogoff is co-head of Polar Capital's Global Technology team. Having joined the industry just before the technology bubble of the late 1990's and early 2000's, Ben has a wealth of experience navigating different market cycles. We discuss the environment today, the similarities and differences with the TMT bubble and what it takes to be a successful tech investor. We also dive into Ben's investment themes, the benefits of being diversified and the importance of not missing out on big winners.
Show notes: [1:33] Ben discusses his early career [4:12] Surviving the bursting of the tech bubble [5:21] Lessons from the tech bubble [7:44] Joining Polar Capital [9:01] Guardrails for tech investing [12:43] There is often no mean reversion in tech [14:23] Companies should behave differently at different stages of maturity [17:11] Reinvestment risk is high in tech [18:13] The importance of not missing out on the big winners [20:22] The benefits of being diversified [21:20] Sell discipline [23:36] False sell signals in the current environment [25:00] Investment themes and why tech as an enabler of new industries [28:25] Is AI a general purpose technology? [30:45] The semiconductor cycle and geopolitical risk [33:33] Similarities and differences with the tech bubble [36:53] Adapting to a different capital market environment [40:00] The scale advantages of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet et al [43:42] Recording how you feel in the moment and getting to where you want to be as quickly as possible
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