Talking Geopolitics Redefining the US-China Relationship: George Friedman on Geopolitical Shifts in East Asia
Oct 31, 2025
George Friedman, Chairman of Geopolitical Futures and author of The Next 100 Years, shares insights into the pivotal meeting between Trump and Xi. He discusses China's leverage over rare earths and the implications for U.S. supply chains. Friedman also analyses the risks of military confrontation due to economic dependence and highlights the internal tensions within China fueled by slower growth. He emphasizes Japan's growing military role and strategic importance in East Asia, shedding light on the shifting dynamics of U.S.–China relations.
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China Needs The Deal More Than The U.S.
- China needs a trade deal because its export-driven growth and supply chains depend heavily on the U.S. market.
- George Friedman argues China is more compelled to negotiate than Russia was with Putin, increasing chances of a lasting agreement.
Rare Earths Are Leverage, Not Forever Control
- China used rare-earth export controls as leverage to signal U.S. dependence on its materials.
- Friedman expects the U.S. will accelerate domestic rare-earth development in response.
Develop Domestic Rare-Earth Capacity
- Invest in domestic rare-earth mining and processing to reduce strategic vulnerability.
- Expect accelerated U.S. programs to secure supply chains for tech and defense needs.
