BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast Fed Cuts Rates: Who Needs to Rate Lock and Refinance ASAP
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Sep 19, 2025 The recent Federal Reserve rate cut has everyone wondering about mortgage rates. Experts discuss whether now is the ideal time to rate lock or refinance as predictions suggest rates could drop to the mid-5% range by late 2025. There’s skepticism about achieving 5% rates without significant declines in the 10-year Treasury. Practical advice for homebuyers and investors is shared, along with insights on how inflation and recession risks impact future rate cuts and overall market trends.
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Why The Fed Cut 25 Basis Points
- The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 4.0–4.25% due to a weakening labor market and moderated inflation risks.
- Dave Meyer thinks a 0.25% cut is stimulative but likely too small to dramatically change the economy.
Dot Plot Shows More Cuts, But It's Unreliable
- The Fed's dot plot shows about two more cuts this year to roughly 3.5% by end-2025 and gradual declines toward ~3% by 2027.
- Dave warns the dot plot is often wrong because the Fed reacts to data, not forecasts.
Mortgage Rates Follow 10-Year Treasuries
- Mortgage rates don't move one-for-one with the federal funds rate; they track the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closely.
- When 10-year yields rise, mortgage rates rise; when yields fall, mortgage rates fall.