Todd Saligman is an insightful analyst from Capital Group focusing on troubled companies, while Steve Watson is a seasoned portfolio manager with expertise in crisis investing. They dive into the unique strategies for identifying opportunities in distressed firms, emphasizing a contrarian mindset. The duo discusses the resilient travel industry during the pandemic, highlighting contrasting outcomes between legacy and low-cost airlines. They also explore the resurgence of the cruise sector and delve into the psychological nuances influencing investment decisions.
A contrarian investment approach during market crises can uncover undervalued assets overlooked by others, highlighting fundamental analysis importance.
The contrasting recovery experiences of the cruise and airline industries demonstrate the necessity of understanding industry dynamics when assessing risk.
Deep dives
The Rationale for Investing During Crises
Investing in companies during times of crisis can present unique opportunities, especially for those with a long-term perspective. A contrarian approach is often required, as these investors are willing to hold high-quality companies through short-term pain for potential long-term gains. Times of crisis typically generate strong negativity in the market, allowing informed investors to identify undervalued assets that others may overlook. This potential arises from the ability to maintain a different view from the prevailing market sentiment, emphasizing the importance of a robust analysis of a company's fundamentals.
Lessons from the Cruise Industry during COVID
The cruise industry experienced significant volatility during the COVID crisis, with stocks plummeting as panic set in among investors. Researching balance sheets revealed that many cruise companies could survive extended periods without revenue due to their unique capital structures, which often included export credit agency debt. This type of debt allowed companies to defer payments, providing a safety net despite the surrounding uncertainty. The eventual recovery of the cruise stocks validated this approach, highlighting that thorough analysis and an understanding of a company's financial health can lead to substantial opportunities even in the midst of panic.
The Dichotomy in the Airline Industry
The airline industry presents a contrasting example of opportunity and risk during crises, as the COVID pandemic adversely affected segments of the market differently. While legacy airlines managed to recover and adapt, low-cost carriers faced significant challenges due to a lack of growth and rising costs, transforming their competitive advantage into a liability. As consumer preferences shifted during the recovery, the once-thriving low-cost sector struggled to maintain its market position against legacy carriers that offered better services. This underscored the critical importance of examining industry dynamics and understanding how various factors influence the long-term viability of different segments within a market.
Evaluating troubled companies can uncover both risks and opportunities. Capital Group analyst Todd Saligman and portfolio manager Steve Watson explain how they approach investing in companies during times of crisis. #CapGroupGlobal
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