Robert Cardillo, former head of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, discusses the role of spy satellites in Ukraine and how images can be spoofed, while investigative reporter and author Scott Anderson dissects the differences between the old Cold War with Russia and the emerging new one.
Satellite imagery has limitations and can be manipulated, highlighting the need for vigilance and transparency in its use.
Geospatial intelligence (including satellite imagery) is critical for understanding conflicts, and the combination of government and private industry capabilities provides a comprehensive understanding of threats.
Deep dives
The Inaccuracy of Satellite Imagery
Satellite imagery, while providing valuable context and awareness, does not show everything and has limitations. It offers a frame of reference and common awareness, but agreement on interpretation may vary. Private industry plays a crucial role in providing satellite imagery, working in partnership with the US intelligence community. The US government acquires commercial imagery for foundational work, while also relying on its own imaging capabilities for more specific intelligence needs, such as nuclear-related activities.
However, the sheer volume of imagery collected today requires the use of machines, algorithms, and computer vision tools to analyze the data. Traditional manual analysis is not feasible due to the overwhelming amount of information. It is important to ensure the authenticity and integrity of the imagery, as there is a risk of manipulated or false images being propagated. Examples of manipulated imagery, such as a fake image of a downed airliner during the Ukrainian conflict, highlight the potential consequences and the need for vigilance and transparency in the use of satellite imagery.
Geospatial Intelligence and the Relationship Between Government and Industry
Geospatial intelligence, which includes satellite imagery, is critical in understanding conflicts like the one in Ukraine. It helps provide a broader awareness and context, although it does not provide a complete picture. The relationship between the US government and private industry in the geospatial imagery sector has evolved over the years. The US government procures commercial imagery for foundational work such as maps and charts, while also using its own sensing capabilities for more specialized intelligence needs. For example, remote sensing is used to gather information on nuclear-related activities in countries like North Korea and Iran. The combination of commercial imagery and government capabilities allows for a comprehensive understanding of various activities and threats.
Challenges and Risks in Satellite Imagery
The increasing volume of satellite imagery poses challenges in terms of analysis and ensuring the authenticity of the data. Manual analysis is no longer feasible and relies heavily on machines, algorithms, and computer vision tools to handle the vast amount of information. However, this also raises concerns about the security and integrity of the imagery. The pixel pedigree, or the traceability of the image from sensing to processing to storage and transmission, must be protected against vulnerabilities and potential manipulation. Historical incidents, such as the dissemination of fake or manipulated imagery, highlight the risks involved. Caution and robust security measures are necessary to avoid the negative impacts of false or misleading information.
Implications for Russia and the Cold War
The current conflict between Russia and Ukraine has drawn comparisons to the Cold War era and raises questions about Russia's intentions and tactics. Experts believe that Russia's actions in Ukraine have backfired and resulted in significant consequences. The invasion of Ukraine has galvanized NATO and reinforced unity among Eastern European countries. Russia's economic and political isolation may increase as a result of their destabilizing actions in Ukraine. However, the long-term impact and potential outcomes in Russia remain uncertain, as Putin's leadership style and decision-making processes are not easily predictable. The situation emphasizes the importance of accurate intelligence and strategic planning to address and cope with evolving threats.
Robert Cardillo, former head of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, discusses the role of spy satellites in Ukraine and how images can be spoofed, while investigative reporter and author Scott Anderson dissects the differences between the old Cold War with Russia and the emerging new one. With Jeanne Meserve and Jeff Stein.