Value Hive Podcast Harris Kupperman (Praetorian Capital): Brazil, Commodities, and Strategy
45 snips
Nov 28, 2025 
Harris Kupperman, a hedge fund manager known for his macro insights, dives into his bullish Brazil thesis, highlighting the effects of a weak dollar and high real rates. He discusses the potential of Brazilian beef exporters over fertilizers and elaborates on macroeconomic shifts in Latin America. Kupperman contrasts security selection versus ETFs in emerging markets and shares his thoughts on commodity trends driven by China. He candidly shares lessons from past mistakes, advocating for long-term strategies and measured risk.
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Brazil Is Poised For A Major Rebound
- Brazil's market is starting to recover after a decade-plus bear market driven by weak commodities and politics.
- A political shift away from Lula plus a weaker dollar and lower rates could trigger large rerating and trading volume gains.
Buy Exchanges And Brokers, Not Just Commodities
- To play a recovering country, buy the stock market infrastructure like exchanges and brokers rather than the politicized giants.
- These capture trading volume expansion and foreign inflows with less single-commodity risk.
Past Brazil Rally Was China-Driven, Not Repeatable
- Brazil's earlier 2004–2008 run was driven by Chinese demand for commodities, not a repeatable industrial boom.
- Future upside may come from ag exports (beef, soy) and FX/interest dynamics rather than another China-like demand surge.