The David Lin Report The S&P 500 Is About To Get Crushed, Here’s What’s Breaking Out Next | Jim Welsh
Jan 16, 2026
Jim Welsh, Founder of Macro Tides and market analyst, dives into the complexities of today's financial landscape. He discusses the seemingly healthy technical indicators and the looming threat of a secular bear market driven by rising debt and housing issues. Welsh highlights potential catalysts for a significant market drop and the impact of geopolitical risks. He also touches on the challenges young adults face in the housing market and consumer spending, emphasizing how these factors could reshape economic policies.
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Advance-Decline Line Signals Near-Term Strength
- The NYSE advance-decline line is making new highs and signals underlying market health right now.
- Jim Welsh says this indicator suggests only modest corrections (3–5%) are likely in the near term.
Watch Leaders For Correction Signals
- Watch leadership changes to time corrections: when leaders pause, broad indexes often follow.
- Jim Welsh plans to focus on the Russell 2000 next time leaders take a breath.
Fundamentals Support Short-Term Market Gains
- The economy looks decent short-term: stronger consumer spending, tax refunds, and AI investment support growth.
- Welsh expects positive underlying earnings and limited near-term downside absent a clear catalyst.