Mike Leone, Establish the Run's Mike Leone, discusses building projections, buy-low candidates, the Jacksonville offense, and Cooper Kupp's fantasy outlook. They explore the influence of big plays on player perception and the anchoring bias affecting DJ Moore. They also touch on analyzing wide receivers, potential trade opportunities, and the drafting process. A lighthearted chat about taking pictures together ends the podcast.
Cooper Kupp's injury raises concerns about his rest of season performance, but his previous success with Matthew Stafford and the Rams' up-tempo play give reasons for optimism.
Jackson Smith and Jigba's underwhelming performance so far may be due to his role in the offense, similar to Laviska Shenault in Seattle. The decision to hold or drop him depends on league format and bench size.
Projection building involves a combination of objective and subjective factors, considering players' talent, team dynamics, play-calling tendencies, and adjustments to game plans.
Deep dives
Cooper Cup's Injury and Rest-of-Season Outlook
Cooper Cup's recent injury raises concerns about his rest of season performance. While he had a solid game in his return, there is uncertainty about whether he can maintain his elite production. However, his previous success with Matthew Stafford and the Rams' increased up-tempo play give reasons to remain optimistic. Cup's past performance suggests he can compete with the best wide receivers when he is healthy. Taking his injury into account, he may not be a top-three wide receiver, but a top-ten finish is still likely.
Jackson Smith and Jigba's Disappointing Season
Jackson Smith and Jigba's performance thus far has been underwhelming. He has been utilized in a role similar to that of Laviska Shenault in the Seattle offense, which has impacted his production. It is disappointing considering the preseason expectations of him being a solid value in season-long drafts. However, the decision to hold onto him in fantasy leagues would depend on the league format and bench size. In deeper and higher-stakes leagues, holding onto him would be recommended, while in smaller and more casual leagues, dropping him may be a consideration.
The Nuances of Projection Building and Subjectivity Involved
Projection building is a combination of objective and subjective factors. While there are formulaic elements involved in creating projections, there is also room for subjectivity, especially when considering certain variables that cannot be fully captured in data. Good projections take into account both quantitative and qualitative analysis. Factors such as players' talent, team dynamics, play-calling tendencies, and adjustments to game plans are considered. It is important to strike a balance between relying on projections as a guide while still being open to other factors that can significantly impact player performance.
The Importance of Range of Outcomes in Projections
Projections are crucial in evaluating players and making informed decisions. While it's important to analyze player profiles and incorporate them into projections, it's equally crucial to consider the range of possible outcomes. Instead of relying on one static number, projections should incorporate a ceiling outcome and the odds of a player exceeding expectations. This approach allows for a more comprehensive understanding of a player's potential and helps identify breakout candidates. Understanding the uncertainties and potential range of outcomes is essential in making effective projections.
Sell-High Strategy and the Impact of Variance
Applying a sell-high strategy involves trading players when their perceived value is high, even if it means selling them before a potentially favorable matchup. This strategy takes into account the unpredictability of performance and the assumption that variance can heavily influence results. An example is selling a player like Saquon Barkley before he returns from injury, considering the current struggles of the team, including quarterback issues and a struggling offensive line. The goal is to maximize value by capitalizing on the player's name recognition and potential upside while the market is still optimistic about their performance.
JJ's joined by Establish the Run's Mike Leone to talk about the art of building projections, some buy-low candidates, the Jacksonville offense, Cooper Kupp, and more.
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