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Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
The Debt Ponzi, Not Inflation, Is The True Threat | Michael Lebowitz
Feb 18, 2024
Debating the rising inflation, potential debt Ponzi threat, and comparisons to the 1970s. Insights from Michael Lebowitz on market risks, government stimulus impact, and looming uncertainties. Exploring shelter prices vs. CPI, historical events, COVID-19 influence, and challenges of sustained fiscal stimulus. Market concerns, volatility forecast, financial advisors' advice on economic cycles, risk management, and long-term financial planning.
01:38:04
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Quick takeaways
- Inflation surge likely temporary due to pandemic supply-demand imbalance.
- Long-term inflation trend expected to decrease due to economic factors.
Deep dives
Inflation and Government Debt
Inflation for January rose higher than expected, but it's likely a fluke and not a sustained trend. The pandemic caused a supply-demand imbalance that boosted inflation temporarily, but supply lines are recovering and behavioral changes from COVID are waning. Trends from the last 30 years, including slower economic growth, weak productivity growth, and high debt levels, will continue to push inflation lower. Government debt has a negative multiplier, meaning it hampers economic activity more than it helps. Boosting fiscal spending further will require lower interest rates, similar to the situation in Japan.
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Discover
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