Former CIA analyst John Sotos discusses Iran's goals in the Mideast, relations with the US, domestic support for the regime, and modern-day challenges since the Iranian Revolution. Topics include Iran's pursuit of regional power, internal struggles, success in regional objectives, and uncertainties facing the Islamic Republic.
Iran aims for regional respect and power, seeking US military presence withdrawal and Israel's challenges.
Iran uses client militias and missile programs for deterrence, focusing on avoiding military conflicts.
Sanctions weaken Iran economically but fail to deter missile development; engaging with JCPOA could be more effective.
Deep dives
Iran's Objectives and Goals
Iran seeks respect in the Middle East as a preeminent power with interests taken seriously. Their revisionist goals include the withdrawal of US military presence from the region and the exhaustion or collapse of Israel. Despite anti-Semitic rhetoric, Iran aims for a containment strategy to pressure Israel until its system collapses.
Tools Used by Iran for Achieving Objectives
Iran employs hard power through client militias like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Kataib Hezbollah and others in Iraq, Ansar Allah or Houthis in Yemen, and support for radical Palestinian groups. Emphasis on missiles and drone programs serves as a deterrent strategy, aiming to avoid scenarios faced during war with Iraq.
Assessment of Deterrence of Iran's Regional Behavior
Iran's actions indicate a level of deterrence, evident in restrained responses to events like the October 7th incidents. While support for groups like Hezbollah showcases intent, actions focus on avoiding direct military clashes. Understanding US capabilities and domestic support limits Iran in escalating conflicts.
Impacts of Sanctions on Iran
Sanctions have weakened Iran economically and fueled the population against the regime. While effective in some aspects, sanctions have not deterred Iran's missile development or regional influence. Sanctions alone are insufficient, and a strategy of engagement like the JCPOA, emphasizing compromise and credible offers, could be more effective.
Challenges in Iran's Domestic Politics
Iran's regime faces waning public support due to economic struggles, internal oppression, and societal discontent. High turnout declines in elections depict disillusionment, while protests reveal growing frustrations with the regime's oppressive policies and lack of choice. Economic concerns and societal restrictions contribute to increasing emigration and societal unrest.
Michael speaks with former CIA analyst John Sotos, who's an expert on Iran. He's now Chief of Analysis at PersuMedia. They discuss Iran's goals in the Mideast, its relations with the US, domestic support for the Iranian regime and the modern-day challenges Iran faces since the Iranian Revolution.
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