#164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives
Oct 2, 2023
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Kevin Esvelt, a biologist at the MIT Media Lab, discusses the threat posed by engineered bioweapons. They cover topics such as the risks of deliberately released pandemics, advancements in technology for creating synthetic viruses, the potential dangers of AI models enabling access to dangerous pathogens, strategies for reducing transmission of pathogens, and the use of gene drives to fight diseases.
The increasing accessibility of synthetic DNA and reverse genetics protocols raises concerns about the deliberate release of engineered pandemic capable viruses.
Large language models like GPT-4 could provide instructions and guidance on creating dangerous pathogens, calling for better regulation and universal DNA synthesis screening.
Balancing the need to identify pandemic capable pathogens with the risk of intentional misuse, focusing on broader spillover prevention efforts and developing broad-spectrum vaccines is crucial.
Nanopore sequencing and nucleic acid vaccines revolutionize pandemic preparedness, enabling faster diagnostic tests and vaccine development.
Combining accidental discoveries and deliberate intent to make pandemics more devastating pose significant risks, emphasizing the need for responsible AI systems in biotechnology.
Deep dives
The Challenge of Deliberately Released Pandemics
The podcast episode discusses the increasing ease of engineering new pandemic capable viruses and the potential for deliberate release. It highlights the accessibility of synthetic DNA and reverse genetics protocols that could allow individuals to create and spread dangerous viruses. The episode addresses the concerns about individuals or groups with malicious intent intentionally causing a global catastrophe and the democratization of biotechnology making it easier for untrained people to engineer pandemic capable viruses. The episode emphasizes the need for improved biosecurity measures and screening to prevent misuse of bioweapons.
The Accessibility of Pandemic Pathogens
The podcast emphasizes that the number of people with the skills to identify and synthesize pandemic capable pathogens is growing. It mentions the role of large language models like GPT-4 in expanding access to this information, providing instructions and guidance on creating dangerous pathogens. The episode points out the need for better regulation, such as universal DNA synthesis screening, to prevent the misuse of such information and the creation of new pandemic pathogens.
Balancing Knowledge and Prevention
The podcast highlights the dilemma faced by scientists in obtaining knowledge about potential pandemic pathogens while balancing the risk of misuse. It explains the challenges in identifying specific viruses that could cause a pandemic and the uncertainty in predicting their behavior. The episode discusses the discount factor applied to potential benefits compared to the greater risk of intentional misuse. It emphasizes the importance of focusing on broader spillover prevention efforts and developing broad-spectrum vaccines to address multiple pathogens rather than targeting specific ones.
Advancements in Technology for Pandemic Preparedness
Nanopore sequencing and nucleic acid vaccines have revolutionized pandemic preparedness by enabling faster and targeted diagnostic tests and vaccine development. Communities at risk can be equipped with tools like nanopore sequencers to quickly identify concerning illnesses and provide valuable data for further analysis. With this capability, within ten days, targeted diagnostic tests and pre-approved nucleic acid vaccines can be developed to combat novel pathogens.
The Potential for Misuse and Accidental Pandemics
The speaker raises concerns about the potential misuse of biotechnology, which could inadvertently lead to the creation of highly lethal viruses. The combination of accidental discoveries and deliberate intent to make pandemics more devastating pose significant risks. Techniques developed for one purpose can accelerate research in other areas of biology, including pathogen engineering. There is a need for responsible AI systems to ensure that biotechnology does not pose a threat to humanity.
Preparing for Catastrophic Pandemic Scenarios
The podcast explores two worst-case pandemic scenarios: the stealth pandemic and the wildfire pandemic. In the stealth pandemic, a fast-spreading respiratory virus with extended latency periods goes unnoticed until people begin succumbing to the illness. Detecting such pathogens early is crucial, and metagenomic sequencing of wastewater, particularly from airplane lavatories, can provide a reliable surveillance system. Convincing the scientific community, defense establishments, and policymakers to take immediate action, although challenging, is essential to prevent or mitigate the impact of such scenarios.
Using CRISPR-based gene drives to combat malaria
CRISPR-based gene drives have the potential to modify the genomes of organisms, allowing for the introduction of alterations at the population level. One application of gene drives is in combating malaria, particularly in the Anopheles-Gambiae mosquito complex, the primary malaria vector. By using CRISPR, researchers can develop gene drives that can either turn the mosquitoes into males, significantly reducing the population and transmission of malaria, or target female fertility or viability genes to hinder reproduction. These approaches aim to decrease the mosquito population to levels where they can no longer transmit malaria. While there is a potential option to block the mosquitoes from getting infected with malaria, the focus is on leveraging CRISPR's programmability for population control rather than relying on molecular blockers.
Solving biosecurity challenges with non-biological tools
While biology creates the problem, it doesn't necessarily provide reliable solutions to biosecurity risks. Some of the most effective solutions lie in non-biological technologies. For instance, combating wildfire pandemics involves the use of pandemic-proof personal protective equipment (P4E) rather than biological interventions. In this scenario, optimizing P4E for comfort, style, and reliability is crucial to ensuring widespread adoption and compliance. Similarly, in stealth pandemics, a combination of sequencing, informatics analysis, computer science, and P4E can play a significant role. Understanding the social side of these challenges, including convincing people to adopt necessary measures, is equally important. While biological advancements like CRISPR are remarkable, addressing biosecurity risks often requires interdisciplinary approaches that extend beyond biology.
Gene Drives for Disease Eradication
Using CRISPR-based gene drives to combat diseases like malaria, schistosomiasis, and the New World screwworm larvae that cause severe harm to humans and animals.
Considerations and Ethical Dilemmas
Addressing concerns about safety, environmental impact, and moral implications of gene drives, emphasizing the importance of humility, community involvement, and prioritizing defense in technology development.
"Imagine a fast-spreading respiratory HIV. It sweeps around the world. Almost nobody has symptoms. Nobody notices until years later, when the first people who are infected begin to succumb. They might die, something else debilitating might happen to them, but by that point, just about everyone on the planet would have been infected already.
And then it would be a race. Can we come up with some way of defusing the thing? Can we come up with the equivalent of HIV antiretrovirals before it's too late?" — Kevin Esvelt
In today’s episode, host Luisa Rodriguez interviews Kevin Esvelt — a biologist at the MIT Media Lab and the inventor of CRISPR-based gene drive — about the threat posed by engineered bioweapons.
Why it makes sense to focus on deliberately released pandemics
Case studies of people who actually wanted to kill billions of humans
How many people have the technical ability to produce dangerous viruses
The different threats of stealth and wildfire pandemics that could crash civilisation
The potential for AI models to increase access to dangerous pathogens
Why scientists try to identify new pandemic-capable pathogens, and the case against that research
Technological solutions, including UV lights and advanced PPE
Using CRISPR-based gene drive to fight diseases and reduce animal suffering
And plenty more.
Producer and editor: Keiran Harris Audio Engineering Lead: Ben Cordell Technical editing: Simon Monsour Additional content editing: Katy Moore and Luisa Rodriguez Transcriptions: Katy Moore
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