Gaza & Ukraine Endgame - John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen
Dec 21, 2023
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Experts in international relations, geopolitics, and Russia's relations with Europe and Asia discuss the morality and consequences of Israel's actions in Gaza, the potential for ethnic cleansing and apartheid in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the influence of the Israel lobby on US foreign policy, Russia's objectives and military actions in Ukraine, and the need for open debate on controversial topics.
Israel's main goal in Gaza is to ethically cleanse the area, forcing Palestinians to leave and emptying it of Palestinians.
Israel is not succeeding in defeating Hamas in Gaza, despite the destruction caused, Hamas fighters remain resilient and continue to inflict significant casualties on Israeli forces.
There are four options for Israel in Gaza: a true democracy with equal rights for all (rejected by Israel), a two-state solution (not of interest), apartheid or ethnic cleansing (the latter being challenging but desired by Israel).
Deep dives
Israel's Objectives in Gaza
Israel's main goal in Gaza is to ethically cleanse the area, forcing Palestinians to leave and emptying it of Palestinians. They resort to murdering Palestinians, destroying infrastructure, and making living conditions unlivable to punish and push them out.
The Failure to Defeat Hamas
Israel is not succeeding in defeating Hamas in Gaza. Despite the destruction caused, Hamas fighters remain resilient and continue to inflict significant casualties on Israeli forces. The Israelis' intention is to punish the Palestinians and drive them to submit to Israeli domination.
Options for Israel in Gaza
There are four options for Israel in Gaza. The first is a true democracy with equal rights for all, which Israel rejects due to concerns over losing its Jewish character. The second is a two-state solution, which Israel has no interest in pursuing. The remaining options are apartheid or ethnic cleansing, with the latter being challenging but desired by Israel. Ultimately, Israel may end up with an apartheid state in the absence of successful ethnic cleansing.
Consequences and Risks of Israel's Actions
Israel's actions in Gaza, as well as its intention to defeat Hamas, have significant consequences. Defeating Hamas is proving to be challenging, and failure to do so would leave Israel feeling defeated and could damage Netanyahu's political future. Moreover, the unconditional US support for Israel is losing international support for both Israel and the United States. There is a risk of escalating conflicts, including with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, potentially leading to regional wars and threatening vital shipping routes in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. The current approach towards Israel and the Middle East region is not in line with rational strategic interests and is influenced by powerful lobbyists and ideology rather than realist logic.
Putin's Objectives and the Challenges of Conquering Ukraine
The podcast discusses Putin's three objectives for Ukraine: denotification, demilitarization, and a neutral Ukraine. While conquering all of Ukraine may be necessary to achieve these goals, it would come with significant challenges and risks. If only a portion of Ukraine is conquered, the remaining territory would likely be a dysfunctional state that is supported by the West, preventing Russia from achieving its objectives. Conquering all of Ukraine could also lead to serious trouble, and Putin may be reluctant to do so. Overall, the podcast explores the difficult decision that Putin faces in pursuing his objectives in Ukraine.
Putin's Focus on Russian Territories and Avoiding Further Escalation
The podcast highlights Putin's speech and his focus on holding onto Russian territories and preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. Putin's main objectives appear to be retaining what he sees as Russian territories and ensuring Ukraine's neutrality. He seems less interested in total victory or conquering all of Ukraine. There is speculation about the potential annexation of Odessa and its pro-Russian sentiment, but attention is drawn to the challenges and risks of further Russian involvement in Ukraine. The podcast also touches upon the potential for future escalation in other regions surrounding Ukraine and emphasizes the importance of open discourse and diverse perspectives in making sound decisions.
