Global Data Pod Weekender: Ease on (further) down the road
Apr 5, 2024
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Chief Economist and Global Economist from JPMorgan discuss strong economic growth, labor markets, and potential easing cycles. They analyze US PMIs, payroll reports, and the impact on financial conditions.
Strong income generation supports resilient growth globally, indicating a prolonged economic expansion.
PMI data reveals sector strength, hinting at possible GDP growth surpassing forecasts in the near future.
Deep dives
Strong Income Generation and Growth Resilience
The data discussed in the podcast episode highlights strong income generation supporting resilient growth. This includes robust labor markets, strong wage growth, decreasing headline inflation rates, and solid purchasing power. Both household sectors and businesses globally are experiencing broad-based income generation, setting a positive stage for extending the economic expansion.
PMIs and Economic Momentum
The podcast episode emphasizes the significance of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, indicating strength in various sectors. The PMIs, particularly in the US, show overall growth consistent with a 2.9% annualized GDP increase. This upward trend aligns with forecasts, suggesting potential upside risks for global GDP growth heading into the second quarter.
Central Banks' Easing Policies and Inflation Concerns
Regarding central banks' easing policies, there is a discussion on the potential impact of upcoming decisions from the Fed, ECB, and Bank of Canada. Questions arise about the feasibility of sustaining expansions with elevated interest rates. The podcast delves into the implications of inflation outcomes, highlighting a shift towards a more cautious approach by the Fed amidst strong growth indicators and evolving economic conditions.
Continued strong growth and robust labor markets alongside strong profits raise the likelihood of a longer expansion even if sticky inflation keeps odds of high-for-longer rates elevated. This week’s global PMIs and US payroll report underscore ongoing resilience, likely pushing back timing and/or magnitude of easing cycles. A key unknown is how this would revert back to financial conditions and short-circuit growth.