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HSBC Global Viewpoint: Banking and Markets

The Macro Brief – The dollar bubble inflates

Nov 29, 2024
Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research at HSBC, delves into the surprising resilience of the U.S. dollar and its potential for further strengthening against G10 currencies. He examines the impact of political events and economic challenges from regions like China and the eurozone. Paul discusses how recent tariff proposals have caused notable shifts in currency values, particularly the Canadian dollar and the peso. Additionally, he highlights the increasing role of AI in financial market analysis, reshaping how economists approach currency forecasting.
11:37

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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The U.S. dollar is projected to strengthen further through 2025 due to favorable political and economic conditions compared to other G10 currencies.
  • Recent tariff proposals have led to muted reactions in currency markets, with participants adjusting strategies in response to consistent tariff trends.

Deep dives

Outlook on the Strong Dollar

The outlook for a strong U.S. dollar remains positive as forecasts indicate that it could further strengthen through 2025. Key adjustments include expectations for the euro to drop below parity at 0.99 and for the renminbi to weaken, with dollar CNY projected to reach 7.4. This prediction stems from a current environment that is considered much more favorable for the dollar compared to previous years, primarily due to ongoing political and economic conditions that position the U.S. as relatively exceptional. Analysts note concerns, such as the potential risks associated with the political landscape, but they maintain confidence in the dollar's trajectory.

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