HSBC Global Viewpoint

The Macro Brief – The dollar bubble inflates

Nov 29, 2024
Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research at HSBC, delves into the surprising resilience of the U.S. dollar and its potential for further strengthening against G10 currencies. He examines the impact of political events and economic challenges from regions like China and the eurozone. Paul discusses how recent tariff proposals have caused notable shifts in currency values, particularly the Canadian dollar and the peso. Additionally, he highlights the increasing role of AI in financial market analysis, reshaping how economists approach currency forecasting.
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INSIGHT

Strong Dollar Outlook

  • HSBC Global Research has believed in a strong dollar since September 2023.
  • Recent US political developments reinforce this view, leading to revised 2025 forecasts.
INSIGHT

Dollar and Trump's Presidency

  • Not everything during President-elect Trump's previous term was dollar positive.
  • The current global economic context differs significantly from 2017, favoring a strong dollar.
INSIGHT

Besant's Dollar View

  • US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant's stance on the dollar is market-determined.
  • A strong dollar will prevail if US or global economic conditions warrant it.
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