Deep Dive: How Kamala Harris is Polling Against Donald Trump So Far... and What To Watch For, with Spencer Kimball | Ep. 847
Jul 25, 2024
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Spencer Kimball from Emerson College Polling discusses Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump in swing states, highlighting Trump's lead, Harris's appeal with minority and young voters, and the potential impact of party endorsements. They analyze the dynamics of the 2024 election, who has the momentum now, and the key constituencies to watch.
Kamala Harris is gaining support in key swing states, rallying Democrats and showing competitiveness against Trump.
National polling numbers hold significance in predicting state outcomes, emphasizing the need to secure votes at both levels.
Deep dives
Poll Findings and Electoral Impact Analysis
Poll findings suggest a shift in voter sentiments towards Kamala Harris, who has managed to rally Democrats back to pre-debate numbers for the Biden-Harris ticket in key swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia. Despite trailing Trump in several states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and a tie in Wisconsin, Harris's candidacy is seen as more competitive. The specific voter demographics, including younger voters, minorities, and females, play a crucial role in reshaping the electoral landscape.
Importance of National Polling Data
National polling numbers serve as a significant indicator of state-level outcomes, with a lead for Trump in national polls mirroring trends in pivotal states. The relevance of national votes in predicting state results is emphasized, as seen in previous elections. The balance between national and state-level support determines the electoral viability for candidates, highlighting the strategic significance of securing votes at both levels.
Upcoming Campaign Strategies and Electoral Dynamics
As the election approaches, Harris faces the challenge of leveraging upcoming conventions and the selection of a running mate to boost her candidacy. The potential impact of these events on voter perception, particularly in swing states like North Carolina and Georgia, underscores the dynamic nature of electoral strategies. The changing electoral demographics and redistricting implications further complicate the electoral calculus, creating a competitive landscape for both Harris and Trump.
Megyn Kelly is joined by Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College Polling, to discuss Emerson's new poll in swing states looking at Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump, how Trump still outperforms Harris in most states, whether Harris is able to perform better than Biden did, the key constituencies of minority voters and young voters, the potential polling impact of Harris being anointed by top Dems rather than the American voters, which party has the momentum now and will in the next few weeks, whether Trump or Harris have the upperhand in 2024, and more.