Ones and Tooze Russia and Ukraine
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Nov 21, 2025 The turmoil of the Russian and Ukrainian economies amidst the ongoing conflict is the centerpiece of the discussion. Key insights include the impact of U.S. oil sanctions and how China and India influence Russia's export dynamics. There's an intriguing examination of Russia's wartime economic mobilization and the internal rivalries within its defense industry. Ukraine faces significant financial challenges, relying heavily on external support while navigating political hurdles in Europe. Finally, the podcast delves into corruption in Ukraine and how patronage networks are adapting to wartime needs.
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Sanctions Escalation Depends On Buyers
- Hitting Rosneft and Lukoil marks a major escalation in U.S. sanctions against Russia and aims to cut Moscow's oil revenue.
- The effectiveness will hinge on how India and China respond and whether the U.S. enforces secondary sanctions.
Resilience Masks Growing Limits
- Russia's economy has been surprisingly resilient, growing through 2023 and 2024 despite sanctions and wartime strain.
- Continued growth looks limited by fiscal squeeze, supply constraints, labor shortages, and diminishing productivity gains.
Old Stockpiles Plus New Drone Makers
- Russia leverages Soviet-era stockpiles and mass-produces simpler munitions and drones rather than high-end platforms.
- A hybrid of old heavy industry and a rising 'people's' tech undergrowth sustains Russia's battlefield production.