How to Win a Campaign Special Episode: Presidential Election Predictions—Do They Really Work?
If we had a crystal ball that could tell us exactly what the outcome of the presidential election will be, many of us would sleep a lot easier at night. But of course, we do not have a crystal ball, and instead we turn to myriad polls, models, and other predictors to try to tell what’s going to happen on election day. That’s why Joe and Martín spend this special episode breaking down the rationale behind some very wonky models as well as some very wacky ones. From looking at factors such as the performance of the economy to consumer trends like popularity of Trump Halloween masks to downright wacky predictors such as a Chinese mystic monkey, there is no shortage of ways to predict the presidency!
Resources
Presidential Election Predictions, Are They Accurate? | Predicting Elections 2020
Wacky Ways to Make Presidential Election Predictions
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Joe Fuld
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Martín Diego Garcia
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