Learn about the changes in European credit, challenges of the post-easy money era, risks of geopolitics and AI, and the quality advantage in European markets. Explore the role of banks, syndicated loans, CLOs, high yield bonds, investment grade bonds, and private credit. Discuss the dilemma of buying opportunities, jurisdiction differences, mispriced risks, labor force shortage, risks of higher interest rates, and the impact of AI. Navigate uncertainty in the market and discover potential opportunities.
42:08
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Quick takeaways
European credit market has shown resilience and confidence in lending has grown after significant events, providing opportunity for high-quality companies to access funding.
Flight to quality in private credit has resulted in intense competition for deals in resilient sectors, but cyclical industries face challenges due to higher borrowing costs and potential labor shortages.
Deep dives
Ways to raise debt financing in European markets
In Europe, corporate borrowers have a variety of ways to raise debt financing. Banks are active but have become more conservative since the global financial crisis. The syndicated loan market, managed by investment managers, is prominent for larger borrowers and private equity-owned businesses. In addition, there are high yield and investment grade bonds, although the retail investor base for high yield bonds is small in Europe. Private credit is also active, with different managers employing various vehicles to raise capital from investors and lend in the market.
Trends in the European liquid credit market
The European liquid credit market has experienced a year of recovery after significant events such as the Ukraine invasion and LDI issues. Confidence in lending has grown, and high-quality companies have found a receptive market for refinancing and new issuance. While yield spreads may not be as desired, companies with good investor protection and appropriate structures can still access funding. The market has shown resilience, overcoming pessimism and incorporating improving conditions in Europe. European high yield bonds and senior loans are considered higher quality than their US counterparts, attracting interest from investors.
Trends in private credit and labor shortages
In private credit, there has been a flight to quality, resulting in defensive positioning. Companies in traditionally resilient sectors such as healthcare, business services, and software have faced intense competition for deals. However, cyclical industries have faced challenges due to the higher cost of borrowing and potential labor shortages. The labor shortage, in particular, is a concern as companies grapple with reduced workforce and higher labor costs. While consumer spending remains strong, companies are cautious about inventory levels and overall cost structures. These factors can impact different sectors in unique ways.
Risks to consider in credit markets
Beyond the commonly discussed risks, there are additional factors to consider. Sanctions have become an important consideration in due diligence processes as they can impact revenue and supply chains. Labor shortages and the potential long-term effects on companies' balance sheets are significant concerns. The impact of artificial intelligence and machine learning on businesses is an area of both risk and opportunity that should not be overlooked. Overall, investors and businesses should be mindful of fundamental shifts and reassess their assumptions in the face of uncertainty and changing market dynamics.
Learn about the current state of European credit and the dramatic changes seen over the last year in this thought-provoking discussion with Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit), Madelaine Jones (Portfolio Manager, European Senior Loans and European High Yield Bonds), and Nael Khatoun (Head of European Private Debt). They consider the challenges created by the end of the easy money era, risks posed by geopolitics and artificial intelligence, and the quality advantage that exists in European markets.
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