Venture Alignment, Power Laws, and the Quiet Math Behind Fund Performance

Oct 13, 2025

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John Rikhtegar of RBCx has been dissecting the venture ecosystem with surgeon-level precision lately.
Two of his recent analyses — on GP-LP alignment and VC-backed IPOs — pull back the curtain on where real returns (and misalignments) hide.

Takeaways:

▪️ The Alignment Mirage
→ “Even if you have perfect alignment, it doesn’t guarantee success.”
Small funds look better aligned — lower fees, higher carry exposure — but alignment alone doesn’t produce outperformance. Only 1 in 20 funds (top 5%) actually hit the mythical 3x net. For most LPs, that’s a sobering recalibration.

▪️ Fee Math vs. Fund Math
→ A $50M fund with 2% fees earns $10M in guaranteed income over 10 years.
A $500M fund? $100M.
The large fund could underperform and still make partners rich. That’s the structural irony John highlights — wealth certainty grows as performance risk shrinks.

▪️ The Power Law Follows You
→ “The same power law that defines venture private markets continues after IPO.”
John analyzed 414 North American VC-backed IPOs from 2010–2022.
Result: the top decile averaged +400% after three years.
The bottom 70% traded below IPO price — median return: -57%.
The few still carry the many, even in the public markets.

▪️ Cycles, Not Curves
→ “Venture liquidity is less a sine curve, more a sawtooth wave.”
Half of all exit value in the last decade came from just two years — 2020 and 2021.
Venture isn’t about timing perfection; it’s about vintage discipline — staying in the game long enough for the next liquidity spike.

John’s worldview is empirical, not romantic.
Alignment matters — but selection and structure matter more.
The real alpha sits where incentives, discipline, and data intersect.

Important links:

John's LinkedIn post on Small Fund and Alignment: http://bit.ly/47agoFX

John's LinkedIn post on Power Law post IPO: http://bit.ly/475pAvc

John's LinkedIn profile:

RBCx Ventures: https://www.rbcx.com/

Topics that we discussed:

(00:00) Episode intro and overview of TheOnePoint “Brain Snacks” format
(00:38) Guest introduction – John Rikhtegar, Director of Capital Investments at RBCx(
01:10) What is RBCx and its role in Canada’s innovation ecosystem
(02:20) Understanding how fund size shapes venture alignment
(04:45) Breaking down the basics of fund economics and incentives
(07:10) Why alignment matters—but doesn’t always lead to stronger outcomes
(09:40) How longer private company lifecycles affect venture timelines
(12:20) What limited partners look for when selecting fund managers
(14:40) How fees fit into the overall venture evaluation process
(17:40) Comparing post-investment support in venture and private equity
(21:50) Exploring power-law dynamics in VC-backed public listings
(25:40) Early indicators of durable public-market performance
(29:00) Market cycles, timing, and lessons for long-term investors
(32:40) Understanding liquidity cycles in venture capital
(36:10) Assessing the current market environment in 2025
(38:00) Key takeaways – alignment, discipline, and perspective in venture investing