Ep. 238 Mark Ritchie II: How To Quickly Shift Gears When The Market Changes
Oct 12, 2023
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Mark Ritchie II, Minervini Private Access analyst, discusses interpreting market road signs and analyzing top stocks. Topics include measuring the broader trading environment, analyzing Meta, Nvidia, Duolingo, and Tidewater stocks, progressive exposure in trading, countering emotions and sentiment in investing, psychology of the market and sentiment indicators, market irrationality, mega cap dominance, and insights on patience and buying at the best price.
Mega cap stocks like Meta, Nvidia, and Alphabet have shown resilience and potential upside in the market, but traders should not get too focused on them as there may be better opportunities elsewhere.
Staying flexible and adaptive to market sentiment is crucial for making trading decisions, as sentiment can indicate potential market bottoms even during challenging times. Traders should focus on setups that are working and not be influenced by noise or popular opinion.
When trading stocks, it is important to focus on leading names that break out before the broader market, rather than taking cues from the overall market or indexes. Screening for stocks with significant earnings, high relative strength, and favorable chart patterns is key for identifying strong potential.
Deep dives
Mega caps in focus: Meta, Nvidia, and Alphabet
The podcast discusses the performance of mega cap stocks in the market, specifically Meta, Nvidia, and Alphabet. These stocks have shown resilience and have held up better than the overall indexes. They have the potential for further upside, but a possible failure in these stocks could indicate a weakening rally. The speaker advises caution and suggests not getting too focused on mega caps as there may be better opportunities elsewhere. Additionally, Duolingo is mentioned as a stock that the speaker has bought, citing its strong price action and a potential for a breakout.
Market sentiment and finding opportunities
The podcast emphasizes the importance of market sentiment and how it affects trading decisions. The speaker highlights the significance of staying flexible and adaptive to market conditions. They suggest that sentiment, even during challenging times, can be an indicator of potential market bottoms. The speaker advises focusing on setups that are working and not getting influenced by the noise or popular opinion. They encourage traders to identify opportunities where the reward potential outweighs the risk, looking for asymmetry in trades.
Watchlist for growth stocks
The podcast mentions specific growth stocks that are worth keeping an eye on. Pinduoduo (PDD) is highlighted as a stock with a promising cup and handle pattern and a potential breakout. The speaker mentions that although there is a China risk associated with PDD, its constructive price action makes it an interesting opportunity. Duolingo is also mentioned as a stock the speaker has bought, drawing attention to its strong price performance. The podcast cautions traders to be mindful of potential headline risks and to adjust position sizes accordingly.
Importance of Trading Stocks Based on Leading Names
When trading stocks, it is crucial to focus on leading names rather than taking cues from the overall market or indexes. The speaker emphasizes that the best stocks are likely to lead and break out before the broader market. While market sentiment and interest rates may play a role, the primary strategy should be to screen for stocks in the right groups with significant earnings and high relative strength. The speaker acknowledges the possibility of being wrong but maintains that their process revolves around identifying stocks with strong potential regardless of external factors.
Considering Sentiment and Undercutting Support Levels
The podcast episode encourages investors to pay attention to sentiment indicators, such as put-call ratios, VIX, and the fear and greed index, in order to gauge the general market environment. The speaker highlights that these indicators are essential for understanding the broader sentiment, but they should not be used as timing indicators. They advise against assuming that the market cannot get worse just because it appears bearish or overly negative. The importance of confirmation from the market, such as accumulation days and constructive chart patterns in individual stocks, is emphasized. The speaker also discusses the need to be adaptable and willing to reenter positions after potential shakeouts.
Ride the brake, then stomp on the gas at just the right time. Mark Ritchie II, Minervini Private Access analyst, joins Investor’s Business Daily’s “Investing with IBD” podcast to talk about how to interpret market road signs by examining sentiment – and why it’s more than just timing the market. Ritchie shares tips on how to measure the broader trading environment and analyzes top stocks Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Duolingo (DUOL) and Tidewater (TDW).