Trump, Cartels, Terrorism and...Increasing Migration || Peter Zeihan
Jan 29, 2025
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The classification of Mexican cartels as terrorist groups by the Trump administration ignites discussion about its surprising fallout on narcotics perception and finance. The podcast delves into the fentanyl crisis, contrasting it with traditional drug trade challenges while unraveling smuggling methods from China. It also highlights the unintended effects of border policies, revealing how efforts to curb illegal migration have paradoxically increased the number of asylum-seekers and raises crucial questions on leadership's understanding of immigration complexities.
The U.S. government's designation of Mexican cartels as terrorist groups enables streamlined financial actions but limits military intervention possibilities.
Fentanyl trafficking's complexity arises from its decentralized production methods, complicating countermeasures compared to traditional narcotics like cocaine.
Deep dives
Designating Cartels and Its Implications
The designation of Mexican cartels as terror groups primarily serves to streamline the U.S. government's ability to act against entities associated with the cartels, particularly in financial contexts. This classification allows targeted actions against businesses, such as a taqueria that pays protection money to cartels, through the examination of financial transactions. However, it does not enable military interventions in Mexico since the U.S. is not at war with the country, limiting its real-world impact on cartel activities. The move could also inadvertently designate millions of people in Mexico and Central America as victims of terrorism, potentially qualifying them for asylum in the U.S.
The Complexity of Fentanyl Trafficking
The issues surrounding fentanyl trafficking present a much more complicated scenario than that of traditional narcotics like cocaine, primarily due to its synthetic nature and production methods. Unlike cocaine, which undergoes extensive processing and smuggling through a clear chain of supply, fentanyl is manufactured in smaller, more decentralized operations often starting with precursors sourced from China. This creates numerous small-scale operations distributing the drug, complicating the efforts to combat its spread effectively. The distinction between cartel operations and small-scale producers means that focusing on larger cartels may miss the more significant risks posed by these smaller players in the drug trafficking landscape.
Trump had a fat stack of executive orders waiting to be slammed down onto his desk as soon as he took office. One of those was his designation of Mexican cartels as terrorist groups, which will have some unintended consequences.