Who still has faith in the Belt and Road Initiative?
Oct 31, 2023
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Fraser Howie, a respected independent analyst on China, discusses the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The podcast examines the China-Russia relationship, debt issues in BRI, and the implications of recent removals in China's foreign ministry.
Russia's strong support for China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) suggests a quid pro quo arrangement and a close friendship between Putin and Xi Jinping.
The declining international presence at the Third Belt and Road Forum indicates growing skepticism and wariness towards the BRI, as countries become more aware of hidden strings attached and the potential costs outweighing the benefits.
Deep dives
China-Russia Relationship and Mutual Support
During the Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, Vladimir Putin expressed strong support for China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and praised its achievements. This highlights the close friendship between Putin and Xi Jinping, as well as a possible quid pro quo arrangement, where Russia supports the BRI in exchange for China's tacit support over the invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, China and Russia have shown similar rhetorical positions on issues such as the conflict between Israel and Hamas, displaying caution and ambiguity in their responses.
Limited International Attendance at the BRI Forum
Despite state media claims of broad participation, the Third Belt and Road Forum was largely snubbed by many nations, including the United States, most EU countries, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. Only Viktor Orban of Hungary, who has a favorable view of Putin, attended from Europe. Other attendees were individuals or organizations known for their pro-China stance. This declining international presence suggests growing skepticism and wariness towards the BRI, as countries become more aware of hidden strings attached and the potential costs outweighing the benefits.
Evolving Perceptions of the BRI
The perception of the BRI in Italy and the EU has shifted as they recognize the hidden costs and strategic implications of closer ties with China. Western European countries, including Italy, are growing cautious about the BRI and its potential impact on trade deficits and debt traps. In the global south, initial optimism about the BRI has waned as recipient countries become more aware of the strings attached and the unintended consequences of infrastructure projects. While there is still a desire for Chinese investment, there is a greater sense of caution and an understanding that win-win collaboration may not materialize as expected.
For ten years, China has been pushing other countries to partner with it through the Belt and Road initiative (BRI). While some nations such as Russia are fans of the project, it has largely been snubbed by the West. In this podcast, Fraser Howie, a respected independent analyst on China, considers whether the BRI is becoming an obsolete concept. The host is Duncan Bartlett from the SOAS China Institute.