1/30/23: Trump Campaign Heats Up, Jordan Peterson on Desantis, Biden 2024 Run, Ukraine Fighter Jets, Trump Peace Deal, Iran Drone Attack, Tyre Nichols, Gain of Function Ban, Affirmative Action, French General Strikes, Jeffrey Stein on Debt Ceiling Fixes
Trump's campaign heats up as he takes jabs at Ron Desantis and Nikki Haley. Jordan Peterson criticizes Desantis' ban on CRT in Florida. Biden's re-election campaign begins. Push for US to send fighter jets to Ukraine. Trump demands peace deal for Ukraine. Iran hit by kamikaze drone. Brutal murder of Tyre Nichols by Memphis police. Experts call for stricter rules on Gain of Function research. Affirmative action vs. test scores at Med schools. French General Strikes against retirement age increase. Jeffrey Stein on debt ceiling crisis.
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Quick takeaways
Former President Donald Trump is advocating for negotiated peace in Ukraine, emphasizing his ability to end the conflict quickly if he were in power.
The possibility of sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine is being considered by military officials to aid in defense against Russian attacks, but concerns about escalation and striking inside Russian territory arise.
Iran's defense facility was hit by a drone attack, attributed to Israel, reflecting heightened tensions and containment efforts in the region.
The widespread French general strike against President Macron's proposed retirement age increase serves as a lesson for those contemplating cuts to social security in the United States.
Deep dives
Israel Strikes Iranian Defense Compound in Iran
Israel has conducted a drone strike targeting an Iranian defense factory in Iran, causing damage to the plant. The strike is believed to be in response to heightened tensions and efforts to contain Iran's nuclear and military ambitions. While Israel has not taken credit for the strike, it is widely attributed to them.
Trump's Message of Negotiated Peace in Ukraine
Former President Donald Trump is making a political case for negotiated peace in Ukraine, stating that he would have prevented the conflict and could negotiate an end to the war in 24 hours if he were president. This message could be potent in both the Republican primary and the general election, as public support for continued aid to Ukraine is divided and many are concerned about the ongoing conflict.
Growing Calls for F-16s to be Sent to Ukraine
There is a growing push from military officials to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to aid in defense against Russian missile and drone attacks. While Ukraine has long desired F-16s, the range and offensive capabilities of these jets raises concerns about potential escalation in the conflict and the ability to strike inside Russian territory. The US government is considering the request, but there are also implications for NATO allies and the potential for expanding the conflict.
Iran Struck by Drone Attack on Defense Facility
Iran has announced that its defense facility was struck by a drone attack, causing damage. While Iran attributes the attack to a drone strike, Israel is widely believed to be behind the strike, although they have not taken credit for it. The strike comes amid international efforts to contain Iran's military ambitions and heightened tensions in the region.
French Protests Against Retirement Age Increase
Millions of people in France have taken to the streets in a general strike to protest President Emmanuel Macron's proposed increase in the retirement age from 62 to 64. Labor unions from across the political spectrum have united in the movement, which has disrupted energy production, public transit, and businesses. In addition to the protests, trade unionists in the energy sector have engaged in unauthorized "Robin Hood" operations, providing free gas and electricity to schools, hospitals, and low-income households. The public's support for the protests is high, with around 70-80% opposing the retirement age change. The French resistance to the proposed increase serves as a lesson for those considering cuts to social security in the United States.
Options to Avoid the Debt Ceiling Crisis
The Biden administration is considering various strategies to avoid a default crisis if an agreement on raising the debt ceiling cannot be reached with the Republican House caucus. These strategies include the minting of a platinum coin, declaring laws unconstitutional, self-funding federal assets, buying discounted bonds, invoking the 14th amendment, issuing consol bonds with no maturity date, and reducing Federal Reserve remittances. While some of these options may appear unconventional, the administration is unlikely to pursue them in the absence of a crisis. However, if a default appears imminent and negotiations fail, these options may be reconsidered.
Prospects for Negotiations on the Debt Ceiling
While negotiations on the debt ceiling between Republicans and Democrats are ongoing, the outcome remains uncertain. The White House sees political value in portraying Republicans as willing to destroy the economy to cut social security and Medicare. On the other hand, the Republican House caucus is unlikely to negotiate a deal that does not involve substantial cuts to major domestic programs. As a result, there is currently no clear path to reaching an agreement. If a crisis looms and none of the major actors are willing to make concessions, unilateral options, such as the minting of a platinum coin, may be considered.
Potential Risks and Challenges in Dealing with the Debt Ceiling
While the possibility of reaching a default on the debt ceiling is low, the risks and challenges associated with this situation should not be underestimated. If a deal cannot be reached and unilateral options are pursued, such actions could lead to a significant increase in borrowing costs. Investors may demand a risk premium on purchasing U.S. government debt, driving up borrowing costs by hundreds of billions of dollars. Additionally, legal challenges could arise, potentially undermining the effectiveness of any unilateral action. The complex and high-stakes nature of the debt ceiling issue makes it a topic of concern that requires careful consideration and action from policymakers.
Krystal and Saagar discuss Trump's election campaign heating up as he throws jabs at Ron Desantis and Nikki Haley, Jordan Peterson's unusual take on the Joe Rogan podcast where he says Desantis did the wrong thing by banning CRT in Florida, Biden's re election campaign begins to shape up, a push for the US to send F16 Fighter Jets to Ukraine, Trump demanding a negotiated peace deal for Ukraine, Iran has an armory hit by a kamikaze drone, a look into the brutal murder of Tyre Nichols by the Memphis police, an expert board of Virologists unanimously agree for stricter rules around Gain of Function research, Saagar takes a look at the fight between test scores and affirmative action at Med schools, Krystal looks at the French General strikes as French President Macron attempts to raise the retirement age, Jeffrey Stein (@JStein_WaPo) from the Washington Post joins the show to talk about 7 tricks he thinks could save our debt ceiling crisis.
