The Uncertain Future of Wagner: Implications and Possibilities

The future of Wagner, a Russian mercenary organization, remains uncertain following the death of its founder, Pragogen. Reports suggest that Wagner could either join the Russian Ministry of Defence, stay in Belarus, expand its operations in Africa, or form new successor organizations. Lukashenko in Belarus values Wagner's presence for military training and political purposes. The formation of a new Wagner-like organization is also a possibility. Wagner's role extends beyond mercenaries, playing a part in Pragogen's wider Concord group, involving investments, disinformation campaigns, and political influence. In Africa, Wagner provides authoritarian regime support services, trigger pullers, and political technologists. The financial model of Wagner involves unconventional payment methods, such as gold buying and kickbacks. The dismantling of Concord group weakens Wagner's operations. However, the decline of Wagner in Africa might create space for other countries, like China, to step in. The impact on the Russian military includes the potential Wagnerization of the regular military, learning from Wagner's operational flexibility and ability to break rules. The outcome could be a change in military doctrine, marked by a focus on results rather than regulations. The future direction will depend on whether Wagner's methods are seen as a temporary expedient or a wider shift in the Russian military's approach. The previously effective 40th Soviet army in Afghanistan experienced a similar shift that was ultimately forgotten. The broader implications include political and cultural debates about exploiting Africa's governance challenges, as Wagner is seen as a symptom rather than the root cause. This questions whether Russia has a comprehensive strategy in Africa or is mainly pursuing short-term opportunistic goals. The decline of Wagner might lead to the loss of influence for Russia in Africa, which could be filled by other countries. Domestically, Wagner's decline affects military operations, criminality issues, and societal discussions on prioritizing victory over following rules. It remains to be seen if the influence of Wagner extends beyond military operations, shaping broader ideologies in Russia.