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The Market Huddle

MH+ Ep.24 The Four Fours (guest: Barry C. Knapp)

Jan 10, 2024
Barry C. Knapp, Founder and Director of Ironsides Macroeconomics, joins the podcast. They discuss the FED's aggressive hiking cycle and its effects on various sectors, including small banks, businesses, real estate, and the government. They delve into the market's reaction to the September meeting and the Fed's response. The likelihood of a recession triggered by rising unemployment and its impact on investors is explored. The guest also discusses the potential scenario of the Fed cutting rates, the struggles in the back end of the market, and shares where listeners can find more of his work.
35:24

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The podcast critiques the Federal Reserve's policy mistakes and the need for a pivot in their approach, emphasizing the impact on the yield curve inversion and the banking system.
  • The speaker analyzes the Fed's reliance on the Phillips curve and the potential challenges in achieving desired outcomes, highlighting the impact on economic growth, earnings projections, and the cautious outlook for the stock market.

Deep dives

The Fed's policy mistakes and the need to guide the other way

The podcast episode discusses the Federal Reserve's policy mistakes in terms of raising interest rates too far and the need for the Fed to guide in the opposite direction. The speaker highlights that the Fed hiked rates unnecessarily, leading to the deepest yield curve inversion since the Volcker Fed. They also express concerns about the aggressive hiking cycle and the impact on the banking system. The speaker emphasizes that the Fed's recent pivot and acknowledgment of excessive policy are necessary but cautions about the potential challenges in achieving a desirable outcome. Overall, the episode critiques the Fed's approach and explores the implications for the economy and markets.

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