Barry C. Knapp, Founder and Director of Ironsides Macroeconomics, joins the podcast. They discuss the FED's aggressive hiking cycle and its effects on various sectors, including small banks, businesses, real estate, and the government. They delve into the market's reaction to the September meeting and the Fed's response. The likelihood of a recession triggered by rising unemployment and its impact on investors is explored. The guest also discusses the potential scenario of the Fed cutting rates, the struggles in the back end of the market, and shares where listeners can find more of his work.
The podcast critiques the Federal Reserve's policy mistakes and the need for a pivot in their approach, emphasizing the impact on the yield curve inversion and the banking system.
The speaker analyzes the Fed's reliance on the Phillips curve and the potential challenges in achieving desired outcomes, highlighting the impact on economic growth, earnings projections, and the cautious outlook for the stock market.
Deep dives
The Fed's policy mistakes and the need to guide the other way
The podcast episode discusses the Federal Reserve's policy mistakes in terms of raising interest rates too far and the need for the Fed to guide in the opposite direction. The speaker highlights that the Fed hiked rates unnecessarily, leading to the deepest yield curve inversion since the Volcker Fed. They also express concerns about the aggressive hiking cycle and the impact on the banking system. The speaker emphasizes that the Fed's recent pivot and acknowledgment of excessive policy are necessary but cautions about the potential challenges in achieving a desirable outcome. Overall, the episode critiques the Fed's approach and explores the implications for the economy and markets.
The challenge of controlling inflation and labor market conditions
The podcast delves into the Federal Reserve's perspective on controlling inflation and labor market conditions. The speaker analyzes the Fed's reliance on the Phillips curve as a framework for addressing inflation and emphasizes the importance of additional labor market slack to reduce core inflation. They expect the unemployment rate to exceed 4% and average hourly earnings to decline significantly. However, they highlight the potential impact of such conditions on economic growth and earnings projections for 2024, suggesting a challenge in achieving the desired outcome. The speaker discusses the cautious outlook for the stock market in such scenarios and the potential repercussions for the economy and financial markets.
The impact of Treasury actions on the economy and markets
The podcast episode explores the impact of Treasury actions on the economy and markets. The speaker discusses the significance of Treasury actions, particularly the Treasury General Account (TGA), in injecting liquidity into the banking system and stimulating economic activity. They highlight how the Treasury's decisions can have more impact than the actions of the Federal Reserve. The speaker mentions the potential consequences of draining or replenishing the TGA and the implications for financial conditions. Additionally, they discuss the need for the Treasury to consider the duration of issued securities, the potential restructuring of Quantitative Tightening (QT), and the role of term premiums in the Treasury market.
Anticipated surprises in the markets and potential concerns
The podcast episode concludes with a discussion on anticipated surprises in the markets and potential concerns. The speaker predicts a possible shock in the back end of the Treasury market, with 10-year yields potentially going up, which may surprise many investors. They caution against premature expectations of small caps' outperformance and financials' improvement, as the described scenario calls for a deterioration in the labor market and aggressive rate cuts. The speaker points out that it is too early for such trades and highlights the need to monitor the overall economic situation and the Fed's response. They highlight the importance of being mindful of market dynamics and potential challenges ahead.
Happy New Year! We kick off 2024 on the Huddle +, with a catch up from Barry C. Knapp, Founder and Director of Ironsides Macroeconomics. Kev and Barry have a great discussion around the FED and what the macro outlook is for 2024.