Value After Hours S06 E34 Alex Morris on The Science of Hitting, Celsius $CELH, $MNST, $FND, $SMG
Sep 23, 2024
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In this engaging discussion, guest Alex Morris, an expert on value investing, breaks down the intricate science of hitting and its surprising parallels to financial strategies. The conversation navigates the rollercoaster world of energy drinks, focusing on Monster's competitive landscape and its partnership with Coca-Cola. The hosts also unpack retail resilience in the face of inflation, Floor & Decor’s market position, and the cyclical nature of housing. Insights into consumer behavior and industry challenges offer a rich tapestry of investment wisdom.
The podcast discusses the ongoing market inversion, highlighting investor confusion and uncertainty regarding future economic implications and trends.
Sales pressures in the energy drink sector, particularly Celsius and Monster, underscore changing consumer preferences and competitive dynamics impacting market positions.
Insights on historical bear market characteristics provide investors with a framework to better understand market recoveries amidst macroeconomic challenges and valuation measures.
Deep dives
Market Inversion Insights
The discussion reveals the complexities of market inversions, particularly the current long-term inversion that has left investors confused about future trends. The participants note that the inversion between different treasury yields continues to remain pronounced, leading to uncertainty over its implications for the economy. Some investors express hesitance to predict movements in the market due to their past inaccuracies in timing such events. The conversation emphasizes a lack of clarity on whether markets will revert to normalcy or if further turmoil is on the horizon.
Energy Drink Market Dynamics
The energy drink sector is experiencing pressure, evident in the declining sales figures of major brands like Monster and Celsius. The discussion highlights a shift in consumer preferences and increased competition as factors affecting sales, particularly in convenience store purchases. Monster's strategic partnership with Coca-Cola is cited as a pivotal move that significantly boosted its market position, while Celsius is facing a challenging phase with its relationship with Pepsi. Data reveals a notable decline, with Celsius stock plummeting from over $90 to the low $30s, as overall market growth appears stagnant despite prior momentum.
Retail Store Challenges
The retail landscape, particularly seen through Dollar General and Dollar Tree's challenges, reflects broader macroeconomic pressures on consumers. Executives from these companies describe their current period as the most difficult they've ever experienced, akin to the financial crisis and COVID-19. They highlight issues such as high inflation impacting discretionary spending, leading to a notable decrease in store traffic and sales. The conversation connects these retail trends to overall economic health and forecasts for consumer behavior, emphasizing the difficulties faced by companies catering to lower-income shoppers.
The Reality of Mergers and Acquisitions
The case of Scott's Miracle-Gro exemplifies the risks associated with aggressive M&A strategies, particularly in the cannabis market. Initially viewed as a beneficial expansion with high revenue growth, the cannabis sector has turned into a significant liability, with revenues abruptly declining by 80%. The ongoing struggle to optimize both the core garden business and the cannabis segments showcases how one poor acquisition can derail an entire company’s strategy. The conversation reveals how companies may hold onto underperforming segments longer than advisable due to sunk costs and misaligned expectations.
Understanding Bear Market Dynamics
The podcast dives into insights from financial historian Russell Napier, who emphasizes characteristics of bear markets based on historical analysis. Key points include the importance of valuation measures, such as the Q ratio, which illustrates market cheapness, and the historical patterns of expansion during downturns. Napier suggests that understanding how prices stabilize can provide crucial signals for future market recovery. Notably, the analysis debunks common misconceptions surrounding final capitulation and shows that improving economic conditions often precede stock market rebounds, guiding investors to view bear markets with a more informed outlook.
Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast
We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P.
About Jake
Jake's Twitter: https://twitter.com/farnamjake1
Jake's book: The Rebel Allocator https://amzn.to/2sgip3l
ABOUT THE PODCAST
Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I launched The Acquirers Podcast to discuss the process of finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations.
We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success.
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ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE
Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®.
He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon’s Business and Finance The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Prior to founding the forerunner to Acquirers Funds in 2010, Tobias was an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer. As a lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions he has advised on transactions across a variety of industries in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore, Bermuda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Guam.
He is a graduate of the University of Queensland in Australia with degrees in Law (2001) and Business (Management) (1999).
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