Front Burner The world’s biggest risks, with Gerry Butts
Jan 7, 2026
Gerry Butts, a Canadian political adviser and vice chairman of the Eurasia Group, dives into pressing global risks, beginning with the U.S. political revolution and its implications for Canada. He discusses the historical context of American turmoil and the potential for institutional resilience. Butts highlights Canada’s vulnerabilities due to its proximity and economic ties to the U.S. He critiques the 'Zombie USMCA' and emphasizes the importance of NATO while outlining strategies for Canada to navigate this turbulent landscape effectively.
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U.S. Politics Now Drives Global Risk
- The U.S. has shifted from being a global shock absorber to a primary generator of geopolitical risk.
- That domestic political upheaval now shapes global stability and investment decisions.
Framing U.S. Change As A Revolution
- Eurasia Group frames current U.S. turmoil as a political revolution with historical parallels.
- It's unclear if it will succeed, but its magnitude demands recognition and preparation.
Plan For Escalation, Not Moderation
- Expect Trump and his allies to double down rather than moderate after electoral setbacks.
- Prepare strategies that account for escalation, not just typical midterm rebounds.