For awhile, I kinda assumed Eliezer had basically coined the concept of p(Doom). Then I was surprised one day to hear him complaining about it being an antipattern he specifically thought was unhelpful and wished people would stop.

He noted: "If you want to trade statements that will actually be informative about how you think things work, I'd suggest, "What is the minimum necessary and sufficient policy that you think would prevent extinction?"

Complete text of the corresponding X Thread:

I spent two decades yelling at nearby people to stop trading their insane made-up "AI timelines" at parties. Just as it seemed like I'd finally gotten them to listen, people invented "p(doom)" to trade around instead. I think it fills the same psychological role.

If you want to trade statements that will actually be informative about how you think things work, I'd suggest, "What is the minimum necessary and [...]

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Outline:

(03:32) Quick Takes

(06:50) Appendix: The Rob Bensinger Files

(08:15) ...but you only get five words a couple questions.

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First published:
August 22nd, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4mBaixwf4k8jk7fG4/yudkowsky-on-don-t-use-p-doom

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

Survey/questionnaire about STEM+ AI predictions with probability scales and color-coded responses.

The image shows a structured questionnaire containing 11 statements about artificial intelligence capabilities, timelines, and potential impacts. Each statement has a probability scale ranging from

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