Market Crash Catalyst for Recession? with Julian Brigden

Interview recorded - 18th of July, 2024

On this episode of the WTFinance I had the pleasure of welcoming back Julian Brigden. Julian is the Head of Research at Macro Intelligence 2 Partner.

During our conversation we spoke about Julian's thoughts on the economy, recession on the horizon, why market crash could be a catalyst for recession, hyperfinancialisation, volatility in bubble, dollar, treasuries and more. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
1:25 - Julian’s thoughts of the economy?
6:50 - Recession on the horizon?
9:10 - Linked to the 1960’s?
11:50 - Government pressure of central banks?
15:10 - Service inflation always been high?
17:30 - Unemployment coming through?
21:26 - Similarities to great recession?
26:31 - Volatility in bubbles
29:03 - Why no rotation?
31:59 - What impact on fixed income & dollar?
34:31 - Where do the dollars go?
37:41 - Relatively bullish on surplus markets?
38:51 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?

Julian Brigden is the Head of Research at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, a firm he co-founded in 2011. He leads a six-person team of research and market professionals to publish independent macroeconomic research that is both ahead of market consensus and timely. Julian has over 30 years of experience in financial markets including positions in market and policy focused consulting to institutional investors as well as FICC sales. 

Julian is a trusted advisor to many top money managers who use MI2 Partners’ research to guide their investment process. He has extensive experience with macro data analysis, broad fixed income, equity market (not individual stocks) and currencies. He is particularly skilled at exploring correlations in the economy and financial markets vital to a vast array of investment decision-makers. As a global macro strategist, Julian’s primary focus is understanding and explaining macroeconomic and policy-related developments to tell clients what is important in markets and what to fade. 

When asked about his market outlook for 2022, Julian stated that the US policy response was massive. As a result, the economy has closed the output gap and is in danger of overheating. Together with inflation, Julian believes that this means the Fed needs to rapidly tighten policy while slowing growth. As rates rise and the balance sheet shrinks, the risks to very overvalued asset prices, especially stocks, will rise. He then stated that in Europe, as the impact of Omicron fades and the inventory cycle surges, the ECB will need to raise rates, which will add to the pressure in global bond markets. 

Julian spent five years at Medley Global Advisors from 1999 to 2004, a leading macro policy intelligence firm, as the Managing Director of the G7 Client Team, providing timely trading recommendations. From 2004 to 2011, he served as North American Head of Hedge Fund Sales at Crédit Agricole. He has worked in London, Zurich, New York and Vail at UBS, Lehman Brothers, HSBC, Drexel, Credit Suisse, and Salomon Brother in foreign exchange and precious metals.

Julian -

Website - https://mi2partners.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/JulianMI2
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/julian-brigden-150b2114

WTFinance -

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