Better Offline Monologue: Annualized Revenues Are BS
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Aug 1, 2025 Dive into the murky waters of 'annualized revenue' metrics that tech giants use to create an illusion of growth. Discover how companies like OpenAI and Anthropic pad their projections to attract investors, despite not hitting their actual targets. The conversation reveals the unsettling truth about AI investments, hinting that the enthusiasm might come crashing down once the financial reality sets in. It's a thought-provoking look at the deceptive practices at play in the tech industry.
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Annualized Revenue Misleads
- "Annualized revenue" means multiplying a single month's revenue by 12 to project a year.
- This term often misleads people into overestimating a company's yearly earnings.
OpenAI's Revenue Reality Check
- OpenAI's $12 billion annualized revenue means $1 billion in one month, not actual yearly revenue.
- Their 2025 revenue projection exceeds what they've earned so far this year.
Anthropic's Revenue Overstatement
- Anthropic's monthly leaked annualized revenues suggest $4 billion for 2025 but actual revenue through June is closer to $1.15 billion.
- This gap shows that their projections are overly optimistic and misleading.