In this engaging discussion, Stephanie Baker, an award-winning Bloomberg journalist renowned for her economic investigations, delves into the economic war against Russia. She reveals how the unprecedented sanctions have positioned Russia as the most sanctioned nation ever, yet it demonstrates surprising resilience. Baker examines the complex role of international coalitions and corporate responses, the pivotal strategies of Russia's Central Bank, and the mounting challenges faced by the Russian military, all while considering the future of global alliances amidst this conflict.
The unprecedented level of sanctions against Russia, nearly 20,000 in total, presents a historically unparalleled unity among Western allies despite internal divisions.
Despite initial sanctions leading to economic downturns, Russia's recovery stems largely from fluctuating oil prices, raising concerns about its long-term financial stability.
Deep dives
The Scale and Impact of Sanctions on Russia
Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has faced nearly 20,000 sanctions, marking it as the most sanctioned nation globally. Initially, there was hope that these unprecedented measures would cripple the Russian economy and compel Putin to reconsider his actions. However, despite an initial economic downturn and depreciation of the ruble, Russia managed to recover mainly due to a spike in oil prices driven by the panic in oil markets following the invasion. The ultimate aim of the sanctions has shifted towards restricting Russia's ability to sustain its military efforts, but challenges remain due to loopholes that allow continued trade in essential resources.
Division Among Western Powers in Sanction Implementation
The podcast discusses the significant yet complicated coordination among Western allies in sanctioning Russia, noting that this level of unity is unparalleled in history. Despite quick alignment on certain sanctions, internal divisions persist, especially within the EU, where countries like Hungary resist tougher measures while others, such as Poland and the Baltic States, advocate for more aggressive action. Specific sectors, like consumer goods, highlight the mixed responses from international companies, where some exited Russia at substantial loss while others remained, citing the necessity of their products. This inconsistency illustrates the difficulties faced by the coalition in maintaining a united front against Russia.
Economic Challenges and Future Concerns for Russia
Although the sanctions have not devastated the Russian economy as initially expected, there are significant challenges ahead that threaten its long-term stability. Putin's massive military spending now consumes one-third of government expenditure, and the country is dealing with labor shortages and high inflation rates. Predictably, Russia's reliance on oil revenues has become precarious, especially with declining prices impacting its financial health. There is a general consensus that without a significant shift, such as securing more recruits for the military, the economic strain could force Putin into a position where he must reconsider his wartime strategies.
In this episode of Battleground Saul and Patrick speak to award-winning Bloomberg journalist Stephanie Baker about her in-depth investigation into the unprecedented economic war the US and its allies are waging against Russia as detailed in her compelling new book Punishing Putin: Inside Economic War to Bring Down Russia.
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